Previous : -0.4%
Forecast : -0.2%
A monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes. The retail sales index is often taken as an indicator of consumer confidence. Released at 8:30 am EST around the 12th of each month, the report reflects data from the previous month. This report is the advance report, which can be revised fairly significantly after the final numbers are calculated. Many analysts choose to look at the figures ex-auto, which means excluding the volatile car sales figure. It is thought that this number is a better measure of across-the-board purchasing trends. The report does not include money spent on services, so it represents less than half of total consumption during the month. However, even with these limitations, the figures are closely watched as an indicator of the health of the economy.
Why is it useful?
Retail sales can be looked upon as the heart of any economy, therefore from the sounds of that the general effect of it is of great value on markets. The fact that itÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s a measure of all the retail goods sold nation wide this might present an insignificant importance but the truth is quite the opposite. The importance of retails sales figures resides in a number of factors, it is a very clear reflection of consumers confidence that is when retail sales are higher than means people are more confidence in their economy hence are spending there money on purchasing both durable and non durable goods.
Another indicator can be considered as an inflation indicator the prices pressure on consumers and their effect from one side and also the higher demand levels consequently create higher inflation levels. Last but not least the key reflection of this number is valued from the fact that it can be a very important indicator to the health of any economy that is retail sales also is a very major part of the consumers spending while in its turn represents a large percent of the GDP figure the more sales means production, in addition to consumer spending habits and confidence as mentioned above consequently a healthier economy.
After whatÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s said one can predict the effect on the currency as well as the stock markets. Well as important as it is yet the importance of the reading excluding the volatile factors as in autos is the more accurate measure. As for the currency higher retail sales means a healthier economy with higher growth levels that strengthens the currency as well as the joined inflation that might predict of futuristic rate hikes. Now for the equity markets the effect is as well positive for more sales means the production paddle is on the turn so itÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s a good thing but the difference is that the impact is on a short term not as that for the currency because the same thing is considered in inflation witch is the equity markets silent killer for the realization of future interest rate hikes from inflation risks is the problem. In both cases the opposite is applicable as well.
Previous : -0.4%