Previous : 0.2%
Forecast : -0.2%

Definition :

It is one of the important indicators that are watched out in all economies, and in the simplest form we can say measures the performance of the retailing industry which is selling directly to final consumers, from big department stores to non-store retailer and small-town businesses.

It covers the percentage change in sales from the prior month, and considered a good economic indicator as consumption and expenditure are curtail economic components which account well in the final GDP figure. Meanwhile some report as well the figure excluding autos, such as the US, as it is known to be volatile and may offset the outcome.

Volatility is very much likely in the index, though seasonally adjusted yet we can see the effect of holiday's and sale seasons on sales, while other than that it is subject to revision which all add up to making it harder to foresee a pattern from retail sales. Nevertheless that does not exclude the index from being very watched out for in all economies as final consumer are the economy's moving wheel and their consumption patter account highly considering it is a coincident indicator which reflects the current economic state, as it is timely despite the major component that in excludes which is money spent on services as they only regard sales on goods and not services which nowadays is consuming a large portion of spent money in economies.

Why is it useful?

Retail sales can be looked upon as the heart of any economy, therefore from the sounds of that the general effect of it is of great value on markets. The fact that it’s a measure of all the retail goods sold nation wide this might present an insignificant importance but the truth is quite the opposite. The importance of retails sales figures resides in a number of factors, it is a very clear reflection of consumers confidence that is when retail sales are higher than means people are more confidence in their economy hence are spending there money on purchasing both durable and non durable goods.

Another indicator can be considered as an inflation indicator the prices pressure on consumers and their effect from one side and also the higher demand levels consequently create higher inflation levels. Last but not least the key reflection of this number is valued from the fact that it can be a very important indicator to the health of any economy that is retail sales also is a very major part of the consumers spending while in its turn represents a large percent of the GDP figure the more sales means production, in addition to consumer spending habits and confidence as mentioned above consequently a healthier economy.

After what’s said one can predict the effect on the currency as well as the stock markets. Well as important as it is yet the importance of the reading excluding the volatile factors as in autos is the more accurate measure. As for the currency higher retail sales means a healthier economy with higher growth levels that strengthens the currency as well as the joined inflation that might predict of futuristic rate hikes. Now for the equity markets the effect is as well positive for more sales means the production paddle is on the turn so it’s a good thing but the difference is that the impact is on a short term not as that for the currency because the same thing is considered in inflation witch is the equity markets silent killer for the realization of future interest rate hikes from inflation risks is the problem. In both cases the opposite is applicable as well.