As suggested Friday, we got a final push in risk on the Sunday open. Expectations are for a bearish week but probably for a partial retracement of the rally from the lows. I'll stick with the bear side as long as prices remain below their Sunday night highs. Areas of interest on the downside are EURUSD 12410/30, AUDUSD 9745/95, and SPX 1290.

Trading wise, I'm still short AUDUSD from 9960 and exiting USDJPY longs (entry was on 6/1 NFP day).

Want to learn more about this stuff? Come to next week's Bootcamp.

THE MARKET(S) a.k.a. RISK SNAPSHOT - 60 Minute Closes


Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

SPX 500 - Daily Bars


Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Most of the correction (rally) is probably complete in price but not time. Slightly more than 50% of the decline has been retraced in just over a week's time. The decline from the April high consumed 43 days. I'll dig deeper into the statistics but a quick look at corrective rallies that occur following 5 wave declines from significant tops (1987 and 2007 for example) reveal that the corrective rally tends to consume 1/3 - 1/2 of the time that the decline did. In other words, one would expect the rally from the low to take roughly 14 to 21 days. Projected from the 6/4 low, we get possible topping dates on 6/22 (next Friday) and 7/3.

SPY ETF - Daily Candles


Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

This is updated from Friday. The gaps may come into play later this week.

EURUSD - Daily Bars


Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

AUDUSD - Daily Bars


Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.