Market Brief

      Risk appetite has been maintained across the FX markets after Australian Unemployment figures overnight remained relatively stable at 5.8% as expected. AUDUSD rallied sharply after the release from 0.9310 to 0.9370, and bids have kept the pair elevated around 0.9350 levels into the European session. The news comes in the wake of disappointing New Zealand Retail Sales figures which could only muster a 0.2% gain on the month against expectations for a 0.4% print; ensuring AUDNZD surged back above 1.2600 levels for the first time since last week. Despite Asian equities putting in a mediocre performance (albeit after a strongly positive week overall), gold has powered to new highs yet again above $1123 – taking us up nearly 8% in just the first 2 weeks of this month.

      This morning’s session kicks off with Swedish CPI which is forecast to gain 0.2% MoM after last month’s 0.3% reading. Swedish data has been somewhat disappointing in the past month, with Industrial Production, Retail Sales and PPI all coming in lower than expected, and the Unemployment rate ticking higher to 8.3%. We feel this backdrop makes it unlikely the Riksbank will shift to a more hawkish stance in their December meeting, but considering the recent pattern of other central banks trying to convey a more balanced view of the recovery from here (Fed, ECB, BoE), this will be an important reading to take into account. Also important for momentum players will be the 5-day moving average crossing below the 20-day moving earlier this week, EURSEK first support comes in around 10.1500 levels.

    Later in the morning expect Eurozone Industrial Production (0.5% MoM expected, 0.9% last); however we feel that the significance of this number will be overshadowed by tomorrow’s Q3 GDP reading. In the meantime expect EURUSD to be predominantly driven by risk appetite themes (watch equity markets and gold), and technical levels that have kept the pair range bound for most of the week – 1.4950 key support, 1.5045-63 resistance zone. With the US back from yesterday’s public holiday, we expect a return to normal liquidity in the afternoon session, but data events will be light with just Canadian Housing Price Index and US claims numbers due.

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
 AUD0.54width=120
 NZD0.22width=48.8888888888889
 CAD0.18width=40
 NOK0.17width=37.7777777777778
 JPY0.11width=24.4444444444444
 EUR0.03width=6.66666666666667
 DKK0.00width=0
width=2.22222222222222CHF-0.01 
width=8.88888888888889GBP-0.04 
width=37.7777777777778SEK-0.17 
 Global Indexes Current Level % Change
Nikkei 225 Index9'804.49- 0.68
Hang Seng Index22'434.83- 0.85
Shanghai Index3'172.95- 0.07
FTSE 100 Index5'266.75+ 0.69
DAX Index5'668.35+ 0.98
SMI Index6'374.70+ 0.09
S&P future1'092.50- 0.35
 World Markets Current Level % Change
Gold1'120.41+ 0.27
Silver17.65+ 0.23
VIX23.04+ 0.88
Crude wti79.36+ 0.10
USD Index75.04- 0.03
 Todays Calender Estimates Previous Country / GMT
CPI, % m/m (Y/Y) Oct0.2 (-1.6)0.3 (-1.6)SEK/08:30
Industrial production, % m/m Sep0.50.9EUR/10:00
Housing price index, % m/m (Sep)0.20.1CAD/13:30
Initial jobless claims, thous 07-Nov510512USD/13:30
Continuing claims, thous 07-Nov57005749USD/13:30
Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9475
R 1: 0.9370
CURRENT: 0.9340
S 1: 0.9195
S 2: 0.9090

USDCAD
R 2: 1.0780
R 1: 1.0608
CURRENT: 1.0445
S 1: 1.0420
S 2: 1.0380

EURJPY
R 2: 135.99
R 1: 135.70
CURRENT: 134.30
S 1: 133.22
S 2: 132.50

USDMXN
R 2: 13.442
R 1: 13.340
CURRENT: 13.147
S 1: 13.065
S 2: 12.988