Risk appetite has been maintained across the FX markets after Australian Unemployment figures overnight remained relatively stable at 5.8% as expected. AUDUSD rallied sharply after the release from 0.9310 to 0.9370, and bids have kept the pair elevated around 0.9350 levels into the European session. The news comes in the wake of disappointing New Zealand Retail Sales figures which could only muster a 0.2% gain on the month against expectations for a 0.4% print; ensuring AUDNZD surged back above 1.2600 levels for the first time since last week. Despite Asian equities putting in a mediocre performance (albeit after a strongly positive week overall), gold has powered to new highs yet again above $1123 – taking us up nearly 8% in just the first 2 weeks of this month.
This morning’s session kicks off with Swedish CPI which is forecast to gain 0.2% MoM after last month’s 0.3% reading. Swedish data has been somewhat disappointing in the past month, with Industrial Production, Retail Sales and PPI all coming in lower than expected, and the Unemployment rate ticking higher to 8.3%. We feel this backdrop makes it unlikely the Riksbank will shift to a more hawkish stance in their December meeting, but considering the recent pattern of other central banks trying to convey a more balanced view of the recovery from here (Fed, ECB, BoE), this will be an important reading to take into account. Also important for momentum players will be the 5-day moving average crossing below the 20-day moving earlier this week, EURSEK first support comes in around 10.1500 levels.
Later in the morning expect Eurozone Industrial Production (0.5% MoM expected, 0.9% last); however we feel that the significance of this number will be overshadowed by tomorrow’s Q3 GDP reading. In the meantime expect EURUSD to be predominantly driven by risk appetite themes (watch equity markets and gold), and technical levels that have kept the pair range bound for most of the week – 1.4950 key support, 1.5045-63 resistance zone. With the US back from yesterday’s public holiday, we expect a return to normal liquidity in the afternoon session, but data events will be light with just Canadian Housing Price Index and US claims numbers due.