The Usd was stronger in the Asian session, halting its recent decline on the back of increased risk aversion. The combination of a larger than expected fall in ADP survey, weaker equity markets and 2% rises in oil inventory, which put pressure on commodity prices, dampened optimism and sent investors back into safe haven trades. The EurUsd traded from 1.3680 to 1.3540, while UsdJpy dropped sharply from 92.80 to 91.57. The UsdCad, which failed to close below the 1.1800 support, climbed above 1.2000 as crude prices shed nearly 6%. Asian and European equity markets are all trading lower and US futures are point to a negative open. Commodities are witnessing significant selling pressure, as crude wti is now trading at $42.94bll and spot gold $841.70oz. Negative sentiment should carry through the day, with the impending NFP on Friday looming and materialize in Usd strength.
The highlight of the trading day will be the BoE MPC's interest rate decision. Markets are expecting a 50bp cut, but we would not be surprised by something larger in 100bp. The UK domestic activity has continued to deteriorate since the last meeting, while the global economy hasn't faired much better. Unemployment rate has grown to 6% with no near-term ceiling in sight, while businesses are still having a tough time accessing credit.. However, the recent drop in the Sterling has given respite to the MPC and could provide the rational for going 50bp instead.