EurUsd Yet another new high for EURUSD over the last 24 hours (1.3758), but the existing 3-week uptrend has clearly broken down and given way to a much shallower uptrend channel. Given the massive rally we've witnessed in this pair over the last 3 weeks (which has swept us nearly 9 big figures off the 1.2874 lows), our bullish bias at this point would not be dented by a correction lower to clear out some stale positioning. Supports are noted at 1.3540 (24 Jan low), 1.3397 (20 Jan low), and 1.3245 (17 Jan low). The root of our bullishness is down to the bullish cup & handle pattern that's been in play for over a week and is yet to be resolved. As a reminder, the activation of that pattern began at 1.3330, and has a target at 1.4035. We were compelled to bank our profits at 1.3580 when the uptrend experienced its first breach, but would definitely be willing to re-load longs on a correction to 1.3400-50 levels. On the topside, next resistance is 1.3785 (22 Nov high), 1.3825 (10-11 Nov highs), and 1.3975 (9 Nov high).
GbpUsd Despite an impressive relief rally off the 1.5751 lows post-GDP, GBPUSD has once again found itself unable to overcome the selling pressure lurking ahead of 1.6000 resistance, and has now slumped back below 1.5900. The unexpectedly strong rally yesterday forced us to re-define the slope of the current downtrend channel, but nonetheless, we still consider this pair under the influence of a downtrend channel, and would like to see a deeper correction before we consider jumping back into longs. The first obvious area of support is likely to be Tuesday's low 1.5751, but below there we note potential support levels at 1.5718 (13 Jan low), 1.5585 (12 Jan low), 1.5515 (11 Jan low), 1.5474 (10 Jan low) and 1.5454 (200-day moving average). For the bulls to prove that the GDP figure has well and truly been absorbed and digested, they will need to break above this downtrend ceiling around 1.5990) and preferably mount a credible challenge on 1.6010-20 (20, 21, 24 & 25 Jan highs).
UsdJpy Yesterday's obliteration of the 3-week downtrend channel was certainly impressive -hitting a high of 83.21 and carving a bullish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart -but the effects have not been long-lasting, and instead of triggering the start of a bullish trend, USDJPY has instead started drifting back lower. It looks very much like we'll spend the rest of the morning chopping around between 81.85 and 83.20, but hopefully this afternoon's US GDP print can provide a jolt of excitement later on. Considering the bullish engulfing candlestick, our very marginal bias is for the bulls to be the stronger force today. On the topside, the next development to wait for will be an hourly close above 83.12 (20 Jan high), as this would open the path to 83.50 (11 Jan high), 83.70 (7 Jan high), and the formidable old range ceiling from early December at 84.40. This latter level managed to contain numerous rallies back on 29 Nov, 1 Dec, 2 Dec, 8 Dec, 13 Dec and 16 Dec -so it's likely to be a stubborn barrier on the first test. First support is now 81.85 (19 Jan low), 81.70 (4 Jan European/US session low), 80.95 (31 Dec low), 80.24 (31 Oct low), before the all-time low from 1995 at 79.75.
UsdChf The bears managed to nudge USDCHF a little lower yesterday; negating the stubborn support around 0.9400-05 (25-26 Jan lows), and managing to print a new low watermark for the week of 0.9390. This development ensured the potential double bottom we highlighted yesterday was discarded before it ever became active, but bulls did still manage to drag us back to 0.9480 subsequently which suggests the bears are running out of momentum. Over a slightly longer horizon, it's worth noting that the 2-week downtrend channel still in force, so there is plenty of scope for the pair to continue lower; only support noted on the horizon is that 0.9390 low, before we will be staring down the barrel of the all-time low 0.9301 seen on 31 Dec. Should the bulls have more success gathering momentum than the bears, resistance levels come in at 0.9480 (yesterday's high), 0.9520 (former support turned resistance), 0.9687 (14, 20 & 21 Jan highs), 0.9784 (11 Jan high), 0.9850 (12-13 Dec highs) and 1.0065 (1 Dec high).