EurUsd EURUSD opened sharply lower at the start of this week, starting trading at 1.3715 - down from the 1.3795 levels we left it at the close on Friday. The low so far has been 1.3646, but the downside is clearly vulnerable to a deeper sell-off given the overarching bear trend in place. The next technical levels below are noted at 1.3558 (13 Sep low), 1.3496 (12 Sep low), 1.3461 (15 Feb low), and 1.3428 (14 Feb low). Resistance is now expected to materialize around this week's high 1.3715, then 1.3730-40 (trend line resistance off the 12 & 14 Sep lows), 1.3937 (9 &15 Sep high), and 1.4148 (7 Sep high).
GbpUsd In similar fashion to EURUSD, GBPUSD has gapped lower at the start of this week, and has thus far spent the morning in a modest range between 1.5685 and 1.5757. A 4-week downtrend channel is still very much in force so from here it seems likely that the selling pressure will resume in the coming days. We expect some weak demand to materialize ahead of the channel's lower trend line (currently 1.5560-70). Below there is a long plunge until next support at 1.5513 (11 Jan low) and 1.5476 (10 Jan low). First resistance on the topside is now 1.5757 (this morning's high), 1.5840-50 (upper edge of the current downtrend channel), and 1.5886 (12 Sep high). Only a break above that latter level would compel us to believe that a bullish reversal is on the cards.
UsdJpy USDJPY opened modestly higher this morning in Asia but has quickly given back those gains in early Monday trading, leaving back around 76.80 levels and yet to make a decisive move in one direction or the other. Our bias remains that eventually the pair will drift lower given the shallow downtrend channel is currently in play; should we be correct the major support zone to challenge will be 76.40-50 (multi-low support from the last week of August), and below there we'd be looking at 75.96 (the all-time low set on 19 Aug), followed by the major psychological barrier 75.00. First resistance should now appear around 77.30-40 (12 Sep US session high &15 Sep high), 77.86 (9 Aug high), 78.47 (8 Aug high), and 79.42 (5 Aug high).
UsdChf USDCHF started today around 50 pips higher than where it finished on Friday, and is currently trading right around the significant 200-day moving average (now 0.8823). Should the bulls manage to break above that major moving average, it is likely we'd see a lot more short-liquidation and headway into the topside. Resistance remains at 0.8940-45 (13-16 May highs), with further levels noted at 0.9012 (19 Apr high), and 0.9296 (6 Apr high). If however, the buying pressure is unable to overcome supply around the 200-day moving average, then expect the sell-off to meet first support at 0.8796 (today's opening low), 0.8648 (15 Sep low), and 0.8540 (the post SNB intervention low).