EurUsd Fresh new highs of 1.3729 for EURUSD this morning, but the pace of the ascent has clearly slowed, and the breaches of the 3-week uptrend have become ever more frequent. Supports are noted at 1.3540 (24 Jan low), 1.3397 (20 Jan low), and 1.3245 (17 Jan low). With a clear break of the uptrend looking imminent, we feel a correction towards 1.3400 will be required to help clear out stale positions and allow the rally to resume later. Nevertheless, we do still have conviction that the rally will resume, as the bullish cup & handle pattern that's been in play for over a week is yet to be resolved. As a reminder, the activation of that pattern began at 1.3330, and has a target at 1.4035. We were compelled to bank our profits at 1.3580 when the uptrend experienced its first breach, but would definitely be willing to re-load longs on a correction to 1.3400-50 levels. On the topside, next resistance is 1.3785 (22 Nov high), 1.3825 (10-11 Nov highs), and 1.3975 (9 Nov high).
GbpUsd What a strange week for GBPUSD. Tuesday's shocker of a GDP print took us plunging from 1.6020 down to lows of 1.5751, only for yesterday's surprise BoE vote to bring us soaring back towards 1.5950. We'd be wary about jumping straight back on the bullish train just yet though, as it looks like a new downtrend channel is forming on the hourly chart (connecting the 20 & 25 Jan lows, and extending from the 25 Jan highs to roughly this morning's peak). We expect the bears to step in once again ahead of this downtrend ceiling (currently 1.5945-50) and once again re-test Tuesday's low 1.5751. Should that give way, we would be vulnerable to a challenge of the key downside support 1.5718 (13 Jan low). Beyond that level there is a clear path to 1.5585 (12 Jan low), 1.5515 (11 Jan low) and 1.5474 (10 Jan low). For the bulls to prove that the GDP figure has well and truly been absorbed and digested, they will need to break above this downtrend ceiling and preferably mount a credible challenge on 1.6010-20 (20, 21, 24 & 25 Jan highs).
UsdJpy A sharp wake-up call for traders this morning, as the S&P downgrade of Japan's credit caused USDJPY to ramp up from 82.10 to highs of 83.22. In the process, we have negated a number of resistance levels, the most important being the upper edge of the 3-week downtrend around 82.70. With the downtrend defeated, the next target for bulls will be an hourly close above 83.12 (20 Jan high); and then a look at 83.50 (11 Jan high), 83.70 (7 Jan high), and the formidable old range ceiling from early December at 84.40. This latter level managed to contain numerous rallies back on 29 Nov, 1 Dec, 2 Dec, 8 Dec, 13 Dec and 16 Dec -so it's likely to be a stubborn barrier on the first test. First support is now likely to be the back side of the former downtrend (82.70), but then we have a long gap until 81.85 (19 Jan low), 81.70 (4 Jan European/US session low), 80.95 (31 Dec low), 80.24 (31 Oct low), and the all-time low from 1995 at 79.75.
UsdChf USDCHF has probed the 0.9400-05 lows a couple of times in the last couple of days, but has not yet managed to break into fresh downside territory today. Instead, the pair looks content to bounce around between 0.9400-05 and 0.9465 resistance; although that does mean a break above 0.9465 would potentially activate a miniature double-bottom pattern with a target around 0.9520. Over a slightly longer horizon, it's worth noting that the 2-week downtrend channel still in force, so there is plenty of scope for the pair to continue lower; only support noted on the horizon is that 0.9404 low, before we will be staring down the barrel of the all-time low 0.9301 seen on 31 Dec. Should the bulls return, resistance levels come in at 0.9520 (former support turned resistance), 0.9687 (14, 20 & 21 Jan highs), 0.9784 (11 Jan high), 0.9850 (12-13 Dec highs) and 1.0065 (1 Dec high).