EurUsd The bearish engulfing candlestick which printed on the daily chart last week was truly predictive. Selling pressure on the EUR has been unrelenting on Friday and today. Support on the downside such as 1.3539 (100-day moving average) and 1.3510 (50% fibonacci retracement of 1.5145 to 1.1876) was easily taken out, leaving the next area of demand at 1.3397 (20 Jan low), and 1.3245 (17 Jan low). We still hold a bullish bias over the medium- and long-term so would be looking to reload longs back towards 1.3400-50 area. Key levels to beat on the topside will be today's high 1.3558, 1.3583 (21d MA), 1.3632 (11 Feb high), and 1.3896 (61.8% fibonacci retracement of 1.5145 to 1.1876).
GbpUsd The failure of the bearish formation we highlighted in Thursday report to activate, despite a number of temporary dips lower means we are looking for a move higher. We would be watching the reigning 1-month uptrend channel and view dips towards 1.6000 as opportunities to buy. Resistance levels remain choppy on the topside; the nearest one being yesterday's high 1.6079, 1.6138 (10 Feb high), then 1.6278 (3 Feb high), 1.6295 (5 Nov high) with another long gap until 1.6460 (19 Jan 2010 high) and 1.6515 (7 Dec high).
UsdJpy Thursdays early break of the 1-month downtrend has led to an emphatic rally higher; smashing through resistance at 83.21 (27 Jan high) and 83.50 (11 Jan high), currently heading for the next resistance level at 83.70 (7 Jan high). Should we manage to break above there then we'll be looking for a re-test of the formidable old range ceiling from early December at 84.40. This level managed to contain numerous rallies back on 29 Nov, 1 Dec, 2 Dec, 8 Dec, 13 Dec and 16 Dec - so it's likely to be a stubborn barrier on the first test. Next levels beyond come in at 85.40, 85.95 and 86.90. On the downside, first support will be yesterday's 83.10 (intraday lows), followed by 82.55 (back side of former downtrend), 82.20 (9 Feb low), 81.77 (8 Feb low) and 81.31 (2 Feb low).
UsdChf We are seeing a slight pull back today after a very aggressive move higher. The 1-2 week uptrend channel is still encouraging USDCHF to power higher, and having cleared the significant hurdle of 0.9687 (not only the 14, 20 & 21 Jan highs, but also the 100-day moving average), we now start to focus on a re-test of 0.9784 (11 Jan high). Above there, we'd be looking to print new 2011 highs, as the following resistance levels have not been touched since late 2010. The first of these is 0.9850 (12-13 Dec highs), 0.9915 (8 Dec high) and 0.9950 (3 Dec high). Good bidders should emerge ahead of 0.9680 (former resistance now turned support), along the lower edge of the uptrend channel (currently 0.9640) and 0.9525 (8 Feb low). Should we slump lower then watch for next levels at 0.9395 (3 Feb lows), 0.9331 (low water mark for this sell-off which was printed on the 2 Feb), and the all-time low of 0.9301.