EurUsd The EURUSD technical picture looks very bullish today after the pair finally managed to sweep aside 1.3861 resistance yesterday (2 Feb high) and hit a high of 1.3890. Not only is the 2-week uptrend channel still going strong, but thereis also a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart (suggesting further upside momentum to come), and also a potential bullish flag pattern visible on the hourly chart. Should that flag pattern become activated by a break above its upper perimeter (currently between 1.3880-90) then we would add to longs and look for a target above around 1.4025 (the estimated as the length of the flag pole applied to the point of break out). It's also worth remembering that we are still playing the bullish cup & handle pattern from mid-Jan whose target also lies in that area (1.4035). Very minor resistance is noted around 1.3974 (9 Nov high), but the key level to beat will be the psychological barrier 1.4000. First support is 1.3845 (today's low), 1.3744 (yesterday's low), 1.3705 (24 Feb low), 1.3635 (last seen late on 22 Feb), 1.3528 (22 Feb low) and 1.3460 (15 & 16 Feb low). Indeed, we still feel that 1.3460 would be a decent area to add to longs, but would start to reconsider our bullish bias on a test of the neighbouring supports at 1.3428 (14 Feb low) and 1.3397 (20 Jan low).
GbpUsd We've been resolutely bullish on GBPUSD for some time now, but were braced for a potentially rocky ride yesterday after seeing a shooting star candlestick on the daily chart (which can suggest a correction is coming). That fear however was not necessary, as the pair nudged to new highs of 1.6344 and has remained buoyed above 1.6300 today. Nevertheless, we will remain vigilant in case further signs of bullish exhaustion start to creep in. Given the dearth of recent price action at these lofty levels, there are very few resistance levels of note to hinder further upside progress. Indeed we feel the route is now cleared for a run at 1.6460 (19 Jan 2010 high) and 1.6515 (7 Dec high). Near term support is eyed at 1.6216 (today's lows), 1.6110 (lower edge of 2-month uptrend), 1.6070 (17 Feb low), 1.6031 (Friday's low) and 1.6000. Only a break of that 1.6000 level would force us to reconsider our bullish bias from here.
UsdJpy Disappointingly, our USDJPY double bottom pattern was blown out the water yesterday, stopping us out at 81.80 for around 30 pips of loss before hitting a low of 81.58. Nevertheless, it's worth remembering that you can't win them all, and taking a small hit of 30 pips is infinitely preferable to holding onto a losing strategy. From here it looks like we're in range-trading environment, with 81.55-60 representing the range floor (which has held up on 24 Feb, 28 Feb & 2 Mar), and 82.24 acting as the ceiling (1 Mar high). On the downside there are multiple technical supports of note beyond our range floor; the first is 81.13 (4 Feb low), then 80.94 (31 Dec and 2 Jan lows), 80.54 (9 Nov low), 80.24 (31 Oct low) and then the all-time low of 79.75 from 1995. On the topside, our range ceiling is followed by pockets of supply at 82.85-90 (23 Feb rebound highs), 83.55 (18 & 21 Feb highs), and 84.00 (roughly the 16 Feb high).
UsdChf It's definitely not been one of the most dramatic currency pairs this week in terms of volatility, but USDCHF does have the accolade of having pushed to new all-time lows of 0.9202 in the past 24 hours. Only support levels of note are now the psychological ones of 0.9200, 0.9100 and 0.9000 etc, so the risk-reward profile is highly skewed in favour of the bears. Key resistance levels to watch remain at 0.9320 (25 Feb & 1 Mar ceiling), 0.9390 (23 Feb high), 0.9505 (22 Feb high), 0.9540 (18 Feb high), and 0.9600 (17 Feb high).