EurUsd EURUSD finally managed to claw above the 1.4000 level at the end of last week, but the follow-through since has been mediocre to say the least (only getting as far as 1.4007) - meaning we've probably got a lot of frustrated bulls lingering around holding onto excess longs positions. The bullish flag pattern we started playing around 1.3890 last week is still in action (aiming for a target of 1.4025), but we are prepared for the possibility of a correction lower today as excess longs get liquidated. First areas of support are 1.3942 (Friday afternoon low), 1.3845 (3 Mar low), 1.3744 (2 Mar low), and 1.3705 (24 Feb low). On the topside, the first level to beat will be the 1.4007 high seen on Friday, then we will be looking at much clearer skies towards 1.4085 (8 Nov high), 1.4281 (4 Nov high) and 1.4415 (19 Jan 2010 high).
GbpUsd Not a lot of change to the GBPUSD outlook at the start of this week; ultimately, we think that the pair is going to start drifting higher in anticipation of Thursday's BoE rate meeting, but for now the range-bound price action has forced the pair slightly lower despite EURUSD's recent rally. Near term support at 1.6216 (2 Mar lows) is acting as a range floor, but in case of a deeper sell-off then next levels are eyed at 1.6072 (17 Feb low), 1.6031 (25 Feb low) and 1.6000. Only a break of that 1.6000 level would force us to reconsider our bullish bias from here. Resistance remains at 1.6344 (2 Mar high), and is followed up by further levels at 1.6460 (19 Jan 2010 high) and 1.6515 (7 Dec 2009 high).
UsdJpy On Friday we noted that the USDJPY profile looked extremely bullish, and accordingly went long on the activation of a bullish flag pattern around 82.45. The target of this flag stands at 83.20, but after an initially encouraging surge to highs of 83.05, the pair dropped back dramatically, stopping us out for no loss at 82.50. Continued heavy trading at the start of this week has now brought us back towards the lower end of 82.00, so it's worth reiterating the near-term supports at 81.70 (3 Mar low), 81.13 (4 Feb low), 80.94 (31 Dec and 2 Jan lows), 80.54 (9 Nov low), 80.24 (31 Oct low) and then the all-time low of 79.75 from 1995. Resistance levels are eyed at 82.39 (today's high), Friday's peak 83.05, 83.55 (18 & 21 Feb highs), and 84.00 (roughly the 16 Feb high).
UsdChf USDCHF is still trading in a range at the moment, capped by supply around 0.9330 (3-4 Mar highs) and underpinned by the all-time low 0.9202 which was touched last week. Should we break higher, then watch for next resistance to step in at 0.9390 (23 Feb high), 0.9505 (22 Feb high), 0.9540 (18 Feb high), and 0.9600 (17 Feb high). Only support levels of note are now the psychological ones of 0.9200, 0.9100 and 0.9000 etc, so the risk-reward profile is highly skewed in favour of the bears.