Ron Paul Tramples Rick Santorum In Recent Nevada Caucus Poll

By Melanie Jones | February 03 2012 5:31 PM

Ron Paul has shot ahead of Rick Santorum in the latest Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll of likely voters in the Nevada Republican caucus.

Reuters

Texas Rep Ron Paul is ahead of former Speaker Newt Gingrich by six precentage points in Michigan, placing third roughly two weeks before the state's Republican primary on Feb. 28, 2012. In the aftermath of his three-state victory, meanwhile, Santorum has surged 19 percentage points since Mitchell/Rosetta Stone's last poll on Feb. 7, besting Mitt Romney in voter support in the latter's home state.

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The Texas congressman garnered 15 percent of the GOP vote, while the former Pennsylvania senator received eight percent.

Paul's most recent poll numbers are quite a turnaround from the result of another survey done by the Las Vegas Review-Journal earlier this week. In that poll, Paul lost to Santorum by two percentage points, placing him in fourth place with nine percent of the vote.

Romney Still Set to Win

A victory for Ron Paul in Nevada is still largely out of the question. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has far too great a lead for either the Texas congressman or former House Speaker Newt Gingrich to pass him in the caucus.

Mitt Romney is headed for a big win in Nevada on Saturday,Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling, said in a press release.

Romney polled at 45 percent in the Las Vegas Review-Journal Poll, and at 50 percent in the most recent PPP poll.

'Paul is deeply organized here'

It's also unlikely that the Texas libertarian will be able to best Newt Gingrich, currently polling at 25 percent in both the recent polls.

But as the Review-Journal notes, Ron Paul has a habit of exceeding expectation.

The Texas congressman often outperforms polls by turning out his loyal backers in caucus contests, where party members pick their favorites, Laura Myers wrote. Paul is deeply organized here.

Public Policy Polling officials agreed.

It looks like Paul will be able to build on his 14 percent showing in Nevada in 2008, PPP wrote in a press release. His key will be turning out young voters at a higher rate than we're projecting.

Public Policy Polling interviewed 937 likely voters in the Nevada Republican caucus on Feb. 1 to Feb. 2. The poll has a margin or error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.