International Business News - Fundamentals Commentaries http://www.ibtimes.com/rss/feed/fundamentalscommentaries.rss All articles are copyrighted by IBTimes.com 120 30 http://www.ibtimes.com/rss/feed/fundamentalscommentaries.rss http://www.ibtimes.com/images/top_logo_ibt2_3.gif US October unemployment and nonfarm payrolls (nfp) will be released on Friday, November 6th at 8:30 ET. Stability in recent US jobless claims data, a sharp rise in Q3 GDP, improvement in the employment index of the October manufacturing ISM and a continued decline in the ADP unemployment index point... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091104/special-fx-report-us-nfp-job-losses-likely-moderated-in-october.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091104/special-fx-report-us-nfp-job-losses-likely-moderated-in-october.htm Wed, 04 Nov 2009 14:10:00 EST The Bank of England (BOE) will hold a policy meeting on Thursday November 5th. At the October policy meeting the BOE elected to maintain the current level of interest rates at a record low 0.5% and asset purchases at £175bln.  The BOE indicated that they would keep the scale of the asset purchase ... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091103/special-fx-report-preview-of-thursdayboe-amp-ecb-meetings.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091103/special-fx-report-preview-of-thursdayboe-amp-ecb-meetings.htm Tue, 03 Nov 2009 14:36:00 EST The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold a policy meeting on Tuesday, November 3rd. The RBA elected to hike interest rates 25 bps to 3.25% in October. The RBA was the first major industrial nation to hike rates since the emergence of the economic and financial crisis at the end of 2007. The RBA... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091102/special-fx-report-rba-policy-decision-tuesday-fed-wednesday.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091102/special-fx-report-rba-policy-decision-tuesday-fed-wednesday.htm Mon, 02 Nov 2009 14:22:00 EST The risk unwind continued in NY trading as economic data out the US again suggested the recovery will be anemic at best. US equities slipped another two percent in the fourth consecutive decline and have now unwound nearly -5% of gains since last Thursday's close. http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091028/todays-market-update-10-28.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091028/todays-market-update-10-28.htm Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:28:39 EDT The majority consensus is that the USD is headed lower it's just a matter of how fast and how far. The reasons for the negative outlook for the USD include low US yields, rising US budget deficit and speculation about central bank reserve diversification. A minority of analysts suggest that the USD ... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091028/special-fx-report-is-the-usd-bottoming.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091028/special-fx-report-is-the-usd-bottoming.htm Wed, 28 Oct 2009 14:14:00 EDT US advance Q3 GDP will be released on Thursday October 29th. Q3 GDP is expected to rise by 3.2% compared to -0.7% last quarter. The GDP report is expected to post its first expansion since Q2 2008 and confirm the US economy has emerged from recession. GDP has contracted in five of the last six quart... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091027/special-fx-report-big-gain-in-us-advance-q3-gdp-expected.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091027/special-fx-report-big-gain-in-us-advance-q3-gdp-expected.htm Tue, 27 Oct 2009 14:15:00 EDT Last week China reported that the economy expanded at its fastest pace in a year with Q3 GDP at 8.9%. China reported a sharp rise in September industrial output and retail sales as well. Industrial output rose 13.9% and retail sales rose 16%. The rapid rise in China's growth reflects the impact of r... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091026/special-fx-report-will-china-begin-to-withdraw-stimulus.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091026/special-fx-report-will-china-begin-to-withdraw-stimulus.htm Mon, 26 Oct 2009 14:21:00 EDT Monetary policy has never been easy. Interest rates must be set today based on expectations of how the economy will be doing 18 months in the future. So, decision making in the face of uncertainty is nothing new for central bankers. However, there was generally a belief that given the economic forecast, the choice of the appropriate level for interest rates was much less uncertain. Discretion was bad. Rules were good. That textbook is now in flux, and the sordid life of monetary policymakers has... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091023/global-sordid-life-monetary-policymakers.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091023/global-sordid-life-monetary-policymakers.htm Fri, 23 Oct 2009 16:02:05 EDT It seems nobody in this country wants to take responsibility for the secular decline in the value of the U.S. dollar. When Fed Head Bernanke is asked a question about the currency's decline, he refers you to the Treasury Department. When the President is asked about the dollar, you often get the tired old platitude that the U.S. has a strong dollar policy, but his vacuous words seem more like a perfunctory utterance than a bona fide dollar boosting strategy. http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091022/mr-geithner-please-dont-pass-buck-on-dollar.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091022/mr-geithner-please-dont-pass-buck-on-dollar.htm Thu, 22 Oct 2009 11:39:49 EDT Around 2005, I wrote an article that predicted that when the US housing bubble broke, there would be a stock/financial crash - and this: "When markets collapse, the US Fed and other central banks will end up having to buy up the markets, and basically monetize them...in the $trillions" http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091022/monetizing-markets-next-stage-gold-implications.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091022/monetizing-markets-next-stage-gold-implications.htm Thu, 22 Oct 2009 11:18:01 EDT China's impressive GDP figures overnight ignited speculation that we may be close to a point where stimulus is soon removed from the system, sending Asian equities lower and the USD back from the brink of its lowest levels since the beginning of August last year. http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091022/forex-dollar-benefits-from-lower-equities.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091022/forex-dollar-benefits-from-lower-equities.htm Thu, 22 Oct 2009 09:52:18 EDT The recovery in the US housing market appears to have slowed. Construction of new homes was essentially flat in September. NAHB builder's sentiment fell to 18 from 19 last month. This was the first decline in the NAHB in five months and the decline adds to concern about the sustainability of the US ... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091021/special-fx-report-us-housing-market-recovery-may-be-slowing.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091021/special-fx-report-us-housing-market-recovery-may-be-slowing.htm Wed, 21 Oct 2009 13:49:00 EDT GBP experienced a vicious short covering rally last week sparked by speculation the Bank of England (BOE) may pause its asset purchase program. There are two key event risks this week    that could inject additional volatility in GBP trade, Wednesday's release of the Monetary Policy Committee (MP... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091020/special-fx-report-preview-of-mpc-minutes-and-uk-q3-gdp.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091020/special-fx-report-preview-of-mpc-minutes-and-uk-q3-gdp.htm Tue, 20 Oct 2009 14:17:00 EDT The Fed has expanded the monetary base 114% over the past 12 months. Interest rates have been cut dramatically in all major countries. Interest rates are below 1% in the US, Japan and UK. The ECB has kept refinancing rate at 1% and allowed overnight in rates to fall below 1% at its 12 month bank auc... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091019/special-fx-report-massive-fiscal-amp-monetary-stimulus-no-inflation.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091019/special-fx-report-massive-fiscal-amp-monetary-stimulus-no-inflation.htm Mon, 19 Oct 2009 13:51:00 EDT The declining of US consuming sentiment preliminary reading survey of University of Michigan in October to 69.4 from 73.5 in September affected negatively on the US stocks encouraging the investors to take some of their profits out of the equities market which supported the greenback to have a reprieve after a week of massive selling because of the improving of the investors risk appetite which have been underpinned by better than expected earning reports of third quarter which could store the i... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091019/current-market-sentiment.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091019/current-market-sentiment.htm Mon, 19 Oct 2009 10:02:51 EDT In spite of the red opening of the US equities market, the US stocks could close in the green territory as the market optimism because of the third quarter better than expected earning reports which could contain the market sentiment again to lead Dow close its second consecutive session above 10000 at 1062 as the investors have seen in these data further stability in the financial market after the earning reports releases of JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup in the recent few days plus tod... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091016/current-market-sentiment-16-10.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091016/current-market-sentiment-16-10.htm Fri, 16 Oct 2009 14:01:37 EDT US September Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Thursday October 15th. CPI measures the price for goods and services at the consumer level and is the most frequently used report to measure inflation. The CPI report is published by the Bureau of Labor statistics every month. With the pric... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091014/special-fx-report-preview-of-us-september-cpi.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091014/special-fx-report-preview-of-us-september-cpi.htm Wed, 14 Oct 2009 14:28:00 EDT Media reports have declared that the US recession has ended. Most analysts expect the US economy to grow in the third quarter as recent economic data indicates that the US housing market and manufacturing sectors are improving and consumer confidence rising. The strength of the recovery remains in q... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091013/special-fx-report-preview-of-us-september-retail-sales.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091013/special-fx-report-preview-of-us-september-retail-sales.htm Tue, 13 Oct 2009 14:09:00 EDT GBP continues to underperform pressured by speculation that the BOE will maintain its accommodative policy longer than other G-7 central banks and may elect to expand quantitative ease if inflation continues to decline. GBP has also been pressured by concern about rising UK government debt as the UK... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091012/special-fx-report-uk-cpi-amp-boe-policy-eur-gbp-at-six-month-high.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091012/special-fx-report-uk-cpi-amp-boe-policy-eur-gbp-at-six-month-high.htm Mon, 12 Oct 2009 14:18:00 EDT The financial media was all atwitter over USD weakness this past week, but the buck managed to hang on despite reports of its imminent demise. The greenback got off to a weak start after a less than supportive G7 statement retained the same language on FX as the April communiqué, rather than a more strongly worded vote of confidence. http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091012/dollar-stays-weak-but-holds-levels.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091012/dollar-stays-weak-but-holds-levels.htm Mon, 12 Oct 2009 10:42:42 EDT