International Business News - Fundamentals Commentaries http://www.ibtimes.com/rss/feed/fundamentalscommentaries.rss All articles are copyrighted by IBTimes.com 120 30 http://www.ibtimes.com/rss/feed/fundamentalscommentaries.rss http://www.ibtimes.com/images/top_logo_ibt2_3.gif Eurozone out of recession in Q3. According to a flash estimate of Eurostat, the Eurozone GDP increased by 0.4% q/q in the third quarter. There are no detailed results available yet, the components will only be published on 3 December. However, we expect economic stimulus packages (such as the car scrappage premium) and positive effects from the inventory adjustment cycle to have contributed significantly to this positive development. http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091120/macro-markets-euroland.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091120/macro-markets-euroland.htm Fri, 20 Nov 2009 09:30:26 EST A difficult session for Japan's Nikkei 225 overnight wiped away risk appetite at the start of the European session. EUR/USD dropped back to 1.4847 early in the session, the EUR finding support from the strength of the EUR/JPY 132.00 technical barrier. Sterling found encouragement on positive news from the Oct retail sales data. The better tone of the USD has helped knock gold off its highs. http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091119/market-update.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091119/market-update.htm Thu, 19 Nov 2009 09:06:05 EST On November 19th at 8:30A.M. ET initial jobless claims for the week ending 11/14 will be released. Recent statements by Fed Chairman Bernanke indicate that Fed rate policy decisions will be closely tied to the outlook for the US labor market. The Fed is unlikely to hike rates before US employment re... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091118/special-fx-report-preview-of-us-jobless-claims-lei-and-philly-fed.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091118/special-fx-report-preview-of-us-jobless-claims-lei-and-philly-fed.htm Wed, 18 Nov 2009 13:45:00 EST Gains in EUR/USD accelerated in European hours before EUR buyers emerged at 1.4960. Softer stocks in Japan kept the lid on the risk trade in Asian hours but a better tone in European equities indices has coincided with a softer USD against the EUR, AUD and the NZD. Sterling has been subjected to a choppy morning. The pound initially plunged on the back of the release of the Nov MPC minutes. However, the unit has subsequently recovered. The softer USD has spurred gold to a high of USD1148.10 ... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091118/market-update.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091118/market-update.htm Wed, 18 Nov 2009 09:11:26 EST The USD recovered from 2009 low in Tuesday's trade supported by a spike in risk aversion as the IMF warns that the global recovery may be sluggish. Uncertainty about the strength of the global recovery may temporarily limit selling of the USD but the underlying downtrend for the US will likely remai... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091117/special-fx-report-risk-appetite-takestemporary-hit.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091117/special-fx-report-risk-appetite-takestemporary-hit.htm Tue, 17 Nov 2009 14:35:00 EST EUR/USD has drifted lower from its 1.5000 overnight high aided by comments from the ECB's Trichet and a weaker tone in stock markets. The move back to USD1.500 wiped out any evidence of the fact that Fed Chairman Bernanke broke with convention yesterday to make mention of the USD. Bernanke's acknowledgement of the headwinds that face the economy will continue to warrant low rates for an extended period effectively snuffed out any support for the USD. http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091117/market-update.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091117/market-update.htm Tue, 17 Nov 2009 08:11:30 EST The EU reported that Q3 GDP rose 0.4%. A 0.5% rise was expected by the consensus of economists. The GDP rise confirms that EU is slowly emerging from recession. As the EU economy emerges from recession the ECB is expected to begin its plans for an exit strategy from monetary stimulus. Monday, the EC... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091116/special-fx-report-eu-emerges-from-recession-ecb-exit-next.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091116/special-fx-report-eu-emerges-from-recession-ecb-exit-next.htm Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:33:00 EST Government Debt could Double While Private Debt could be Cut in Half. We believe that U.S. government and private debt levels will diverge over the next four or five years as the authorities attempt to use government debt to replace the private debt that is almost certain to decline substantially. U.S. total debt is presently just under $55 trillion, comprised of public (government) debt of about $15 trillion and private debt (U.S. corporations and individuals) of about $40 trillion. http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091112/debt-dynamics-will-hold-back-economy.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091112/debt-dynamics-will-hold-back-economy.htm Thu, 12 Nov 2009 19:05:51 EST We have been saying for some time that the economy will remain weak. The frantic efforts of the federal authorities indicate that they agree. Although the media has been parsing every word of this week's FOMC statement in minute detail, here, without the spin, is all you need to know as quoted directly from the statement. http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091112/government-actions-arevote-no-confidence.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091112/government-actions-arevote-no-confidence.htm Thu, 12 Nov 2009 10:38:37 EST Gold traded at a new record high Wednesday as the USD declined to a 15 month low. Gold is considered a store of value. Investors buy gold when they're worried about the value of other assets or as a hedge against inflation. Because inflation is not currently rising the main driving factor for gold i... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091111/special-fx-report-liquidity-and-weak-usd-drive-gold-to-record-high.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091111/special-fx-report-liquidity-and-weak-usd-drive-gold-to-record-high.htm Wed, 11 Nov 2009 15:18:00 EST CHF traded sharply higher Monday supported by a surge in equity markets and G-20 pledge to continue stimulus. CHF continues to track risk sentiment shrugging off negative Swiss fundamental data. Swiss inflation continues to fall and the unemployment rate rose to an 11 year high. Swiss October CPI de... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091109/special-fx-report-chf-continues-to-rally-despite-weak-data.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091109/special-fx-report-chf-continues-to-rally-despite-weak-data.htm Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:27:00 EST US October unemployment and nonfarm payrolls (nfp) will be released on Friday, November 6th at 8:30 ET. Stability in recent US jobless claims data, a sharp rise in Q3 GDP, improvement in the employment index of the October manufacturing ISM and a continued decline in the ADP unemployment index point... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091104/special-fx-report-us-nfp-job-losses-likely-moderated-in-october.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091104/special-fx-report-us-nfp-job-losses-likely-moderated-in-october.htm Wed, 04 Nov 2009 14:10:00 EST The Bank of England (BOE) will hold a policy meeting on Thursday November 5th. At the October policy meeting the BOE elected to maintain the current level of interest rates at a record low 0.5% and asset purchases at £175bln.  The BOE indicated that they would keep the scale of the asset purchase ... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091103/special-fx-report-preview-of-thursdayboe-amp-ecb-meetings.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091103/special-fx-report-preview-of-thursdayboe-amp-ecb-meetings.htm Tue, 03 Nov 2009 14:36:00 EST The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold a policy meeting on Tuesday, November 3rd. The RBA elected to hike interest rates 25 bps to 3.25% in October. The RBA was the first major industrial nation to hike rates since the emergence of the economic and financial crisis at the end of 2007. The RBA... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091102/special-fx-report-rba-policy-decision-tuesday-fed-wednesday.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091102/special-fx-report-rba-policy-decision-tuesday-fed-wednesday.htm Mon, 02 Nov 2009 14:22:00 EST The risk unwind continued in NY trading as economic data out the US again suggested the recovery will be anemic at best. US equities slipped another two percent in the fourth consecutive decline and have now unwound nearly -5% of gains since last Thursday's close. http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091028/todays-market-update-10-28.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091028/todays-market-update-10-28.htm Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:28:39 EDT The majority consensus is that the USD is headed lower it's just a matter of how fast and how far. The reasons for the negative outlook for the USD include low US yields, rising US budget deficit and speculation about central bank reserve diversification. A minority of analysts suggest that the USD ... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091028/special-fx-report-is-the-usd-bottoming.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091028/special-fx-report-is-the-usd-bottoming.htm Wed, 28 Oct 2009 14:14:00 EDT US advance Q3 GDP will be released on Thursday October 29th. Q3 GDP is expected to rise by 3.2% compared to -0.7% last quarter. The GDP report is expected to post its first expansion since Q2 2008 and confirm the US economy has emerged from recession. GDP has contracted in five of the last six quart... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091027/special-fx-report-big-gain-in-us-advance-q3-gdp-expected.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091027/special-fx-report-big-gain-in-us-advance-q3-gdp-expected.htm Tue, 27 Oct 2009 14:15:00 EDT Last week China reported that the economy expanded at its fastest pace in a year with Q3 GDP at 8.9%. China reported a sharp rise in September industrial output and retail sales as well. Industrial output rose 13.9% and retail sales rose 16%. The rapid rise in China's growth reflects the impact of r... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091026/special-fx-report-will-china-begin-to-withdraw-stimulus.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091026/special-fx-report-will-china-begin-to-withdraw-stimulus.htm Mon, 26 Oct 2009 14:21:00 EDT Monetary policy has never been easy. Interest rates must be set today based on expectations of how the economy will be doing 18 months in the future. So, decision making in the face of uncertainty is nothing new for central bankers. However, there was generally a belief that given the economic forecast, the choice of the appropriate level for interest rates was much less uncertain. Discretion was bad. Rules were good. That textbook is now in flux, and the sordid life of monetary policymakers has... http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091023/global-sordid-life-monetary-policymakers.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091023/global-sordid-life-monetary-policymakers.htm Fri, 23 Oct 2009 16:02:05 EDT It seems nobody in this country wants to take responsibility for the secular decline in the value of the U.S. dollar. When Fed Head Bernanke is asked a question about the currency's decline, he refers you to the Treasury Department. When the President is asked about the dollar, you often get the tired old platitude that the U.S. has a strong dollar policy, but his vacuous words seem more like a perfunctory utterance than a bona fide dollar boosting strategy. http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091022/mr-geithner-please-dont-pass-buck-on-dollar.htm http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091022/mr-geithner-please-dont-pass-buck-on-dollar.htm Thu, 22 Oct 2009 11:39:49 EDT