The Screen Actors Guild Awards, or the SAG Awards, is one of the most reliable predictors of who will win big at the Academy Awards — the four winners in the individual film acting categories at the 2015 SAG Awards all won Oscars the following month. The 2016 SAG Awards air Saturday, Jan. 30, at 8 p.m. EST on TNT and TBS. So who will pick up momentum for the Oscars?
There could be some surprises this year. In the wake of the controversy surrounding the lack of diversity in the all-white 2016 Oscar nominees, SAG members, many of whom also comprise the membership of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (the people who vote for the Oscars), may be hoping for the SAG Awards to be a better showing for diversity in Hollywood.
The simple fact is that the nominations for the 2016 SAG Awards are more integrated to begin with. The African child soldier drama "Beasts of No Nation" and NWA biopic "Straight Outta Compton" make up two of the five nominees for Outstanding Ensemble, Idris Elba has received a nomination in the Best Supporting Actor category, not to mention the much more diverse television nominations. However, the voting rules for the SAG Awards could result in not just nominations, but wins for minority actors. Voting for the SAG Awards did not close until Jan. 29, which means the guild had nearly two weeks to submit their ballots post-the #OscarsSoWhite controversy. Will that affect the voting?
Below are our predictions for the major film categories at the 2016 SAG Awards. The full list of nominees is available HERE.
Outstanding Performance By A Cast In A Motion Picture
- "Beasts of No Nation"
- "The Big Short"
- "Straight Outta Compton"
Prediction: The safe money here would be on "Spotlight" or "The Big Short," which are each Best Picture nominees and have acting nominations in the upcoming Academy Awards. However, SAG Awards voting closed Friday, meaning if many guild members took the industry's call for more diversity in awards to heart, that could propel "Straight Outta Compton" to a surprise win.
Outstanding Performance By A Male Actor In A Leading Role
- Bryan Cranston — "Trumbo"
- Johnny Depp — "Black Mass"
- Leonard DiCaprio — "The Revenant"
- Michael Fassbender — "Steve Jobs"
- Eddie Redmayne — "The Danish Girl"
Prediction: All signs point to this being Leonardo DiCaprio's year. This should be one of a few pit stops for the actor on his way to some long overdue Oscar gold.
Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Leading Role
- Cate Blanchett — "Carol"
- Brie Larson — "Room"
- Helen Mirren — "Woman in Gold"
- Saoirse Ronan — "Brooklyn"
- Sarah Silverman — "I Smile Back"
Prediction: This should come down to Cate Blanchett and Brie Larson. Larson has the momentum coming off of her win at the Golden Globes, but this award will be decided by a guild of actors, not critics, and the veteran Blanchett has a lot of clout. However, Jacob Tremblay's nomination in the Supporting Actor category suggests SAG has a lot of love for "Room." Larson is still the slight favorite.
Outstanding Performance By A Male Actor In A Supporting Role
- Christian Bale — "The Big Short"
- Idris Elba — "Beasts of No Nation"
- Mark Rylance — "Bridge of Spies"
- Michael Shannon — "99 Homes"
- Jacob Tremblay — "Room"
Prediction: With no Sylvester Stallone, who has been cleaning up at other awards shows, this one is more of a toss up. Mark Rylance is the safest bet, but Jacob Tremblay has a lot of momentum following his Critic's Choice Awards win, and who is not rooting for the 9-year-old actor? Then again, the aforementioned voting deadline could propel Idris Elba to a win in the interest of SAG promoting some well needed diversity. It would not be undeserved. Elba is haunting as the violent Commandant in Netflix's "Beasts of No Nation" and was thought to be a favorite in the Oscars race not too long ago.
Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Supporting Role
- Rooney Mara — "Carol"
- Rachel McAdams — "Spotlight"
- Helen Mirren — "Trumbo"
- Alicia Vikander — "The Danish Girl"
- Kate Winslet — "Steve Jobs"
Prediction: None of the actresses in this category is out of the running, but with her win at the Golden Globes, Kate Winslet is the slight favorite. Don't be surprised, though, if Rooney Mara steals her thunder.