SEC Championship 2017: Auburn vs. Georgia Prediction, Odds, College Football Playoff Implications

While there's so much uncertainty surrounding the 2017-2018 College Football Playoff, there isn’t much of a gray area when it comes No.2 Auburn and No.6 Georgia. Win Saturday’s SEC Championship Game and you’re in the postseason. The loser will be unofficially eliminated from national title contention.

Making a prediction for the conference championship game isn’t nearly that simple. The game is practically a toss up—the betting odds favor Auburn by two points at OddsShark—and there are reasons to believe that either team might punch their ticket to the CFP when they meet at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

If it were not for the defending national champions, Auburn would be the No.1 ranked team in the country. Their only two losses this season came against top-ranked Clemson and on the road against No.17 LSU. The Tigers have won five straight games, most recently beating Alabama in the Iron Bowl.

That winning streak includes a 40-17 drubbing of Georgia in Auburn. The Bulldogs entered Jordan-Hare Stadium with an undefeated record, and they were thoroughly embarrassed in their only loss of the season. The contest was all but decided by the start of the fourth quarter when the Tigers had a 20-point lead.

Auburn cruised to a victory on the back of Kerryon Johnson. The running back ran the ball 32 times—he had nine more carries than quarterback Jarrett Stidham had pass attempts—for 167 yards. Johnson was also the team’s leading receiver with two catches for 66 yards, including a 55-yard touchdown reception.

Given a second chance to stop Johnson, Georgia still might not have any answers for the running back. That’s been the fate of almost all of Auburn’s opponents. Johnson has topped the 100-yard mark in eight of his 10 games. The first time he failed to crack the 100-yard mark this season, Johnson still found his way into the end zone five times.

A shoulder injury that Johnson suffered against Alabama, however, has made him a game-time decision Saturday.

Johnson missed two games earlier this season with a hamstring injury. Stidham threw for just 79 yards and no scores when Johnson didn’t play in the loss to Clemson. The quarterback completed 32 of his 37 attempts against lowly Mercer, but he threw an interception and no touchdown passes.

Georgia has one of college football’s best defenses, ranking fourth in yards allowed per game and fifth in points allowed per game. They’ve given up less than 20 points in nine of their 11 contests.

Auburn is tied for 19th with 36.7 points per game, and they scored at least 40 points in eight of their first nine wins. Putting up 26 points against Alabama’s defense in last week’s victory was no small feat.

Will it be Georgia’s defense or Auburn’s offense that prevails?

The over/under of 48 suggests the SEC Championship Game could be a lower-scoring game than what the Tigers are used to playing. With Johnson banged up and the Bulldogs now playing in their home state, Saturday’s rematch might be nothing like the first meeting between these two rivals.

Prediction: Georgia over Auburn, 24-20