Keep in mind what was written Friday - The veracity with which the market fell on Thursday gives credence to the interpretation that the rally from the 6/1 low is complete. To be sure, markets don't move in straight lines and there's sure to be jockeying by both sides next week if for no other reason than to produce doubt amongst participants regarding the larger trend. The tight ranges this week epitomize the 'jockeying' ahead of the next sharp move, which the weight of evidence suggests is DOWN.

Last night's Asia pop higher in risk pairs (AUDUSD and NZDUSD) satisfied Fibonacci relationships, suggesting that the rallies from Monday's lows (and small 2nd waves) are complete. The only thing keeping me from getting aggressive on the short side is that weekly seasonality tendencies favor a Friday high with the Monday low in place. I am short the AUDUSD but not as short as I want to be.

Of note as well is intraday RSI action on the AUDUSD and NZDUSD charts. The indicator failed after poking above 60 on the 240 minute charts and failed just ahead of 70 on the 60 minute charts. These are common bear market tendencies.

AUDUSD levels - 9900 9970 10000 10085 10125 10160

NZDUSD levels - 7750 7800 7843 7925 7963

THE MARKET(S) a.k.a. RISK SNAPSHOT - 60 Minute Closes


Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

AUDUSD - 60 Minute Bars


Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

NZDUSD - 60 Minute Bars


Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

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