The complete information about the documents which were signed in Moscow on Monday was not disclosed yet. Nevertheless, we can put the puzzle together from different bit of pieces of information from the statements of our officials.
We have received additional comments on the possible gas transit fee for 2010. According to Gazprom, the transit fee will rise to $2.4-2.6/tcm per 100km. According to Ukrainian officials, the transit fee might be in the range of $2.7-3/tcm per 100km. In both cases it is much lower than the declared market price, as an average European market price for transit is $3.4-4.5/tcm per 100km according to different estimates.
According to Ms Tymoshenko, the average gas price for 2009 is expected to be $228.8/tcm, although it will reach $360/tcm in 1Q2009 and will subside in the following quarters. Ms Tymoshenko stated that Ukrainian consumers will have a fixed gas price for 2009, which will be based on $228.8/tcm. Naftogas will try to optimize its purchasing policy to limit the purchase of Russian gas in 1Q2009 and increase them in the following quarters. But in any case this will put an immense pressure on the financial state of the company as it will have to absorb these price differences.
An interesting part of the new gas deal is the Gazpromsbyt case. Gazpromsbyt is a Gazprom's subsidiary which was founded on the Ukrainian gas market last year. According to the new gas deal, Gazpromsbyt, will have its right for gas import into Ukraine prolonged and even increased to 25% of the market from 22% which it had last year. As Ukraine has contracted only 40bn cm for 2009, Gazpromsbyt will import into Ukraine approximately 9-15bn cm of Russian gas. This will undemine positions of the Ukrainian gas monopoly Naftogas.
I would like to finish on the bright side: it was confirmed that several European countries began to receive Russian gas today in the morning. Among them were: Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Croatia. Current gas dispute can be declared as resolved. Although it is clear that in long-term new moments might arise, as local gas transit routes are still owned by Ukraine.