Comex Silver (SI)
Silver was limited below 1.7665 last week and consolidations from there continued. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week and deeper fall could be seen to trend line support (now at 16.61). But downside should be contained there and bring rally resumption. Break of 17.665 will target 18.925 resistance next. However, note that sustained break of the trend line support will indicate that whole rebound from 14.65 is possibly completed. The three wave structure will in turn revive that case that recent fall from 19.50 is still in progress. Deeper fall should then be seen to 15.61 and break will confirm the bearish case and target another low below 14.65.
In the bigger picture, as silver is still trading well above medium term rising trend line, rally from 8.4 might not be over yet. Fall from 19.50 might be just a correction that's completed with three waves down to 14.65. Hence, above high above 19.50 could be seen. Nevertheless, there is no change in the broader view that medium term rise from 8.4 is merely part of the whole consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 (2008 high). Hence, even in case of a new high above 19.50, we'd continue to look for reversal signal as silver enters into 19.55/21.44 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 15.61 support though, will revive the bearish case that silver has already topped out and will turn focus back to medium term trend line support instead.
In the longer term picture, the up trend from 01 low of 4.01 topped out at 21.44 and subsequent price actions are treated as correction/consolidation to this up trend. Fall from 21.44 completed after drawing support form 8.5 key level. However, subsequent rally from 8.4 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure and hence, we'd prefer the case that it's just the second wave of the wide range consolidation pattern. Another medium term fall should still be seen for retesting 8.5 before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, strong support is still expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone to conclude the consolidation.
Comex Silver Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart
Comex Silver Continuous Contract Weekly Chart
Comex Silver Continuous Contract Monthly Chart