SNB sees upside pressure to inflation and signal possible rates move 

By @ibtimes on

In its quarterly report, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) said on its website that the outlook for rates can not stay around zero for the coming years as the inflation pressure shifts to the upside.

They did see inflation steady and did not change significantly since their previous December assessment. They added saying toward the end of the forecast horizon, inflation rises briskly and exceeds the upper bound of 2 percent, assuming that the three-month Libor remains unchanged at the current level. This shows that the current expansionary monetary policy can't be maintained over the entire period.

The SNB still was not that fully upbeat; they saw the positive recovery in the global economy benefiting the economy and the prospects for the economy improved from the previous quarter, and for now project the economy to expand by 2.0 percent this year.

Nonetheless, they saw the escalating oil prices and persisting debt problems in Europe as downside pressure on the outlook for the nation, especially as they still see the consequences of Japan's catastrophe still difficult to assess.

Further downside pressure stems from the Franc's appreciation. The SNB sees that the Middle East unrest further supported the currency's appreciation against both the euro and the dollar. The bank sees that the appreciation since November had only a moderate impact on import price index yet exports have lost considerable momentum over the past year due to the franc's strength.

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