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Technical analysis for July 2, 2009

CHF

The pre-planned break-out variant for sales has been implemented with achievement of minimal anticipated target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked relative bearish activity rise at break-out key support level as a sign of rate fall incompleteness argues for sales priority for planning priority choice for today. Hence and considering upside indicator trend we can assume probability of rate return to close 1,0780/1,0800 resistance range levels, where it is recommended to evaluate the development of the activity of both parties in accordance with the charts of a shorter time interval. As for short-term sales on condition of the formation of topping signals the targets will be 1,0720/40, 1,0640/60, 1,0580/1,0600 and (or) further break-out variant up to 1,0520/40, 1,0460/80, 1,0400/20. The alternative for buyers will be above 1,0900 with targets of 1,0940/60, 1,1000/20.

GBP

The pre-planned break-out variant for buyers has been implemented, but with damage to achievement of minimal anticipated target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked relative bullish activity rise at break-out of key resistance range levels, nevertheless, in the bigger picture, is not a significant sign for changing planning priorities favoring buyers. Hence, estimating strengthening of buying activity as a sign of rate correction incompleteness on condition of preservation of sales priority we can assume probability of rate return to 1,6540/60 levels, where it is recommended to evaluate the development of the activity of both parties in accordance with the charts of a shorter time interval. As for short-term sales on condition of the formation of topping signals the targets will be 1,6460/80, 1,6400/20, 1,6340/60 and (or) further break-out variant up to 1,6280/1,6300, 1,6220/40, 1,6140/60. The alternative for buyers will be above 1,6620 with targets of 1,6660/80, 1,6720/40.

JPY

The estimated test of key supports has been confirmed, but relative bearish activity rise marked by OsMA trend indicator did not favor implementation of pre-planned buying positions. Hence and considering close activity parity of both parties as a sign of probable range rate and considering bearish activity rise as sign of rate fall incompleteness, we can assume probability of rate return to close 96,10/20 supports, where it is recommended to evaluate the development of the activity of both parties in accordance with the charts of a shorter time interval. As for short-term buying positions on condition of the formation of topping signals the targets will be 96,60/80, 97,00/20 and (or) further break-out variant up to 97,60/80, 98,20/40, 98,80/99,00. The alternative for sales will be below 95,80 with targets of 95,20/40, 94,60/80.

EUR

The pre-planned break-out variant for buyers has been implemented with achievement of minimal anticipated target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked relative bullish activity rise at break-out of key resistance range levels gives grounds to bullish activity priority for planning priority choice for today. Hence and considering downside indicator trend we can assume probability of another rate return to channel support “1” contained in 1,4060/80 levels, where it is recommended to evaluate the development of the activity of both parties in accordance with the charts of a shorter time interval. As for short-term buying positions on condition of the formation of topping signals the targets will be 1,4120/40, 1,4200/20 and (or) further break-out variant up to 1,4260/80, 1,4320/40. The alternative for sales will be below 1,4020 with targets of 1,3960/80, 1,3900/20, 1,3840/60.

Mood mixed among Asian shares

Asian stock markets put in a mixed performance on Wednesday, with Seoul gaining but Tokyo and Sydney weak as data showed the process of swinging the global economy around to a recovery would be a slow grind.

In Europe, financial bookmakers expected Britain's FTSE 100 <.FTSE> to open up, along with Germany's DAX <.GDAXI> and France's CAC-40.

Oil held above $70 a barrel after U.S. industry inventory data showed a bigger-than-expected fall in crude stocks, which pared some of the previous day's losses after data had unsettled investors about a potential U.S. economic rebound.

In Japan, business confidence pulled back from a record low hit three months ago, but the improvement was smaller than market players had expected and still a negative reading.

That followed an unexpectedly steep slide in U.S. consumer confidence in June, which dented optimism on Wall Street about prospects for recovery and weighed on shares in Asia.

But news of a smaller-than-expected drop in South Korea's exports lifted shares in Seoul 1.6 percent <.KS11>, and factory surveys in China showed a steady recovery in June, boosting Shanghai stocks <.SSEC> by 1.6 percent.

The broader MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan, which hit a 2009 peak earlier in June, edged down 0.2 percent.

Tokyo's Nikkei share average <.N225> fluctuated heavily before closing 0.2 percent in the red.

Currencies too struggled for direction as rallies in commodity-related and riskier currencies paused.

There's no consensus in the market right now between optimism and pessimism, as it's in the midst of recovery trade after extreme moves, said Minoru Shioiri, chief manager of forex trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities.

Perhaps you can say the market has been leaning toward risk-taking, but it still needs to affirm that a recovery in the real economy is keeping pace with expectations.

In Japan, Orix Corp <8591.T> and All Nippon Airways <9202.T> slid after sources familiar with the matter said they were set to announce large public share offerings.

But construction makers such as Komatsu <6301.T> gained, helped by the manufacturing surveys data from China.

Brokerage CLSA's China Purchasing Managers' Index rose in June to an 11-month high of 51.8 and China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) for June also showed China's economic recovery is on more solid ground.

Nonetheless, Australia saw a weak start to the new quarter. The benchmark index <.AXJO> fell 2.1 percent as miners such as BHP Billiton shed 2 percent and growth-sensitive stocks such as mall owner Westfield Group lost ground.

MIXED BAG

Japan's business confidence figures came after the U.S. Conference Board's index of consumer attitudes fell in June to 49.3 from 54.8 in May, deflating U.S. stocks on the last day of the quarter.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> slipped 0.97 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> dropped 0.85 percent and the Nasdaq <.IXIC> eased 0.49 percent. Still, Wall Street closed out its best quarter in a decade. <.N>

Markets are likely to be subdued as they await key U.S. jobs data on Thursday which help put another piece in the puzzle about how fast the world's largest economy is mending.

Speaking ahead of that and a raft of U.S. data later on Wednesday, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen said the Fed's key interest rates could stay near zero for a couple of years.

The dollar index <.DXY> initially gained but later dropped back to stand steady on the day and the yen recouped ground lost to outflows from Japanese pension and mutual funds, traders said.

The dollar climbed 0.3 percent to 96.65 yen, after touching its highest in nearly two weeks, while the euro was steady at $1.4033.

U.S. Treasury prices edged higher while the two-year Japanese government bond yield hit its lowest in three years as expectations grew the central bank would extend measures to ease corporate credit strains beyond a September deadline.

Gold edged higher to $930.10 an ounce, taking a breather after falling more than 1 percent the previous day when a stronger dollar prompted broad-based selling across the commodities sector.

U.S. crude futures stood at $70.41 a barrel, helped by news from the American Petroleum Institute that domestic crude stocks fell 6.8 million barrels to 349.7 million barrels last week, against analysts' forecasts of a 2 million barrel fall.

U.S. commander in Afghanistan reviews strategy: report

WASHINGTON- The new commander of U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan plans an immediate review of operations to ensure his troops are focused on safeguarding key population centers, The Washington Post reported on Tuesday.

U.S. General Stanley McChrystal said he plans to spend eight to 10 days meeting with his military commanders as well as some provincial and village leaders to make an assessment, the newspaper said.

In an interview in Kabul shortly after assuming command, McChrystal told the newspaper the review will focus on which areas U.S., NATO and Afghan troops could secure with current force levels.

We are going to look at those parts of the country that are most important -- and those typically, in an insurgency, are the population centers, McChrystal said.

We've got to ruthlessly prioritize, because we don't have enough forces to do everything, everywhere, he said.

McChrystal takes command midway through a massive build-up of U.S. forces which will see their numbers more than double from 32,000 at the end of 2008 to 68,000 by the end of this year. He also commands about 30,000 troops from other NATO allies.

The Post said McChrystal would likely take a hard look at the Korengal Valley in eastern Afghanistan, where U.S. troops have for several years been locked in an intense battle.

The question in the Korengal is: How many of those fighters, if left alone, would ever come out of there to fight? McChrystal said. I can't answer it. But I do sense that you create a lot of opposition through operations by the military. So you have got to decide where you are going to operate.

The Post said the new commander also wants to revamp the way U.S. forces investigate and respond to civilian casualties.

Civilian deaths caused by foreign troops hunting insurgents have angered many Afghans and have been the main source of friction between President Hamid Karzai's government and the United States.

The Afghan people, particularly the Pashtuns, have a sense of honor and equity that says if you commit a wrong that it has got to be adjudicated, and the person who commits that wrong has got to make some sort of compensation, McChrystal said. We have to understand that process so that when we engage with the population, we don't make things worse.

(Reporting by Joanne Allen; Editing by Vicki Allen)

Kazakhstan June Consumer Price Inflation Eases Further

RTTNews - Consumer prices in Kazakhstan climbed 7.6% year-on-year in June, slower than a 8.4% rise in the preceding month, the country's statistical office said Wednesday. Economists expected prices to rise 7.8%.

Annually, food prices increased 6.1%, while non-food prices rose 6.9%. Price of paid services were up 10.5%.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices were up 0.4% in June compared to a 0.7% increase in May.

In the first six months of the year, consumer prices increased 8.5% compared to the same period in the previous year.

For comments and feedback: contact editorial@rttnews.com

Killer E. coli combines common toxin with rare 'glue'

Scientists investigating in to the killer E. coli strain in Europe have found that the bacteria combines a highly poisonous but common toxin with a rarely seen glue that binds it to a patient's intestines, a Reuters report said on Friday.

It may take months before the global team of researchers fully understand the characteristics of the bacteria that has killed at least 17 people in Europe and affected 1,500. But the greater concern is that this E. coli strain is the most toxic yet to hit a human population.

Most Escherichia coli, or E. coli, bacteria are harmless. The strain that is sickening people in Germany and other parts of Europe, known as 0104:H4, is part of a class of bacteria known as Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli, or STEC, said the report.

This class has the ability to stick to intestinal walls where it pumps out toxins, causing diarrhea and vomiting. In some cases, the repercussions can be as severe as hemolytic uremic syndrome, or HUS, that attacks the kidneys and can even put the patient in coma, cause seizure and stroke.

Germany is now reporting 470 cases of HUS. That is absolutely extraordinary, Dr. Robert Tauxe, a food borne diseases expert at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told Reuters. The CDC has been working with German health authorities on the case since late last week.

That is 10 times more than the largest outbreak in this country, he said, referring to a 1993 outbreak involving fast-food hamburgers that sickened more than 700 people and killed four. In that outbreak, there were 44 cases of HUS, said the report.   When asked if this was the world's deadliest E. coli outbreak yet, Tauxe said: I believe it is.

He said a strain very similar to the German strain had been seen in Korea in the 1990s, but is very rare.

Remarkably, the German strain appears to combine the toxin found in the most common type of STEC bacteria in the United States, known as E. coli O157:H7, with an unusual binding agent. Tauxe said that glue is typically only found in children in the developing world.

The glue that this bug is using is not the same glue that is E. coli 0157 or most other STEC bacteria, he said. It's this combination from the glue from another kind of E. coli and the shiga toxin that makes this an unusual strain, he said.

The U.N. World Health Organization has confirmed that the strain has never been isolated from patients before, and said the bacteria had likely acquired some extra genes that may make it especially deadly.

So far, the source of the outbreak is unknown, but scientists say it is highly likely to have originated in contaminated vegetables or salad in Germany.

E. coli infections are spread by consuming even minuscule particles of feces of infected animals or humans, often via contaminated food or water.

Tauxe said the CDC has notified public health officials in all U.S. states to be on the lookout for the infections. So far, three U.S. adults have developed HUS after having traveled to northern Germany, the CDC said late on Thursday.

The CDC also said the Pentagon has been notified about the outbreak because of the presence of U.S. military bases in Germany but added that there are no known cases among U.S. military personnel.

U.S. health officials have not confirmed that the infections match the German strain, but Tauxe said it is very likely they are part of the same outbreak and more tests are being done to see if the infections have the same fingerprint.

He did not release the individuals' names or addresses.

Scientists at the Beijing Genomics Institute in Shenzhen city in southern China, who have sequenced the genome of the strain, also noted that the strain is highly resistant to several classes of antibiotics.

Tauxe said it is not clear how the bacteria became so resistant because antibiotics are not recommended as a treatment for E. coli.

He said there is no evidence that antibiotics help, and they could make things worse. It is curious to us that it is so resistant, he said.

Phillip Tarr, a professor of microbiology at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis, said E. coli mutate all of the time and it may take months before scientists can fully understand the scientific characteristics of this strain.

This is almost certainly something that cannot be sorted out in any rapid sequence, he said, the report said.

Estonia Retail Sales Decline In May

RTTNews - Wednesday, the Statistics Estonia said in a report that the retail sales in retail trade enterprises declined 16% year-over-year to EEK 4.8 billion in May, compared to the 15% fall in the previous month.

In May, retail sales for the stores selling manufactured goods dipped 23% on an annual basis, while the stores selling textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods sales also fell 23%.

On a monthly basis, the retail sales in retail trade enterprises increased 3% in May.

Meanwhile, the revenues from sales of retail trade enterprises increased 3% month-on-month to EK 5.7 billion.

For comments and feedback: contact editorial@rttnews.com

Australian Engineering Construction Activity Rises In Q4

In Australia, the total value of engineering construction work done, on a seasonally adjusted basis, rose 5% sequentially in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Statistics said Monday. Total engineering construction activity was valued at A$17.6 billion.

During the fourth quarter, engineering construction activity in the private sector rose 6.7% to A$11.2 billion, while it was up 2.4% to A$6.36 billion in the public sector.

Year-on-year, total engineering construction activity grew 26.5% in the fourth quarter, reflecting a 27.8% rise in the value of work done in the private sector and a 24.3% growth in the public sector.

For comments and feedback: contact editorial@rttnews.com

Morning Gasoline Market Report for 1/21/2011

March RBOB prices trended higher overnight as they also tried to recover from Thursday's significant down wave. Some traders indicated that cash prices in the Midwest attracted support on news of a leak at a Sunoco plant in Oklahoma, but that did not appear enough to offset the impact of a surprisingly large build in US gasoline inventories. EIA gasoline stocks rose 4.443 million barrels, which was about two times greater than anticipated. The build pushed gasoline inventories at a 228,000 barrel surplus to year ago levels and 7.006 million above the five year average. Average total gasoline demand for the past four weeks was up 1.96% compared to last year. Gasoline imports came in at 722,000 barrels per day compared to 871,000 barrels the previous week.

WPP bonus scheme approved, trading tougher

LONDON - WPP Plc, the world's largest advertising group, said like-for-like revenue in the first four months of the year dropped 6.7 percent after trading worsened in April.

WPP published the key like-for-like metric, which strips out the impact of acquisitions and currency, in a statement released at the start of the company's annual shareholders' meeting on Tuesday.

It said the pattern of trading continued to be as difficult as in the first quarter, although April had been worse.

Chief Executive Martin Sorrell said in April it would not meet its full-year forecasts after first quarter like-for-like sales fell 5.8 percent as companies slashed marketing budgets.

Although revenues were below budget for the first four months of 2009, headline operating profit and headline operating margin were both above budget, the group said on Tuesday.

Profit before tax, mainly as a result of the first-time amortisation of intangible assets in relation to TNS (acquisition), higher interest charges and incremental severance costs, was down significantly on the previous year.

To counter the fall in revenues, headcount fell by almost 4,300 people or 3.7 percent in the period, with over half leaving on a voluntary basis.

Shares in the group were down 2.6 percent at 467 pence at 1157 GMT, underperforming the DJ Stoxx European media sector index which was down 1 percent.

WPP said the economic pressure was most keenly felt in the United States, Britain and continental Europe, although Eastern continental Europe still showed revenue growth for the first four months of 2009.

But the group said despite the tough environment it still took confidence from the fact it could help clients, and make competitive gains, through its geographic spread and experience.

(Reporting by Kate Holton; Editing by Rupert Winchester)

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