Yesterday morning premarket I wrote
In no way did I expect a 30 point S&P move in such a short period of time, but at this point nothing surprises me about the market anymore. The reason I used S&P 1290 instead of 1294 is I thought any sort of bounce would take at least 3-4 days to play out (hence the 50 day moving average would drift down a bit), but it has happened in essentially 1 market day.
So at this point if you are a believer that resistance still matters and the market is not about to go onto yet another new paradigm V shaped bounce it has now become famous for, this is an area (the next 5 S&P points) where an index short could be built. Using the old rules of the market, this should be a high probability short for 2 reasons - (a) markets don't usually bottom on gap ups as happened yesterday AM and (b) markets usually go back to test recent lows before making a sustained move up (double bottom), hence at minimum one could short until a retest of the lows of Wednesday. Whatever short exposure one had sold off Tuesday/Wednesday on the swoon selling, I would be re-employing as a hedge here - of course it depends on cash position and long exposure as well.
But again that is how the market acted pre QEinfinity, so nowadays I carry around 2 sets of rules ... new paradigm and pre 2009. S&P 1294 will be a closely watched area from here for obvious reasons....secondary resistance 1300. A move over those 2 levels and the bears will be sent back to the corner they have been consigned to for half a year.
Longer term coast is not completely clear for bulls until a new higher high is in place - I'd want to see S&P 1330 cleared to be singing the praises of The Bernank.