The S&P futures are climbing past our 1st tier uptrend and downtrend lines along with the psychological 1050 level despite weaker than expected economic data. Both the ADP Non-Farm Unemployment Change and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI disappointed expectations, signaling unemployment continues to drag despite the pickup in manufacturing and improvements in corporate earnings. Today's data supports the belief that the unemployment market is still too weak for the Fed to begin considering a tightening of liquidity. Therefore, investors seem to be pricing in a neutral monetary policy stance from the Fed later today. The Dollar is weakening across the board, buoying equities and sending crude above its psychological $80/bbl level.
However, even if the Fed's monetary policy decision is fairly certain, the BoE and ECB policies are a bit more vague(refer to our EUR/USD and GBP/USD commentaries). Therefore, the potential does exist for a monetary shock in the next 24 hours, meaning investors should monitor the wires and stay on their toes since volatility should increase in the FX markets. The S&P's impressive recovery from crisis lows has been driven in most part by a weakening Dollar. Therefore, the S&P's negative correlation with the Dollar is still in play. Hence, any surprisingly hawkish move by either the ECB or BoE could stunt the S&P's present stability.
Technically speaking, the S&P's climb back above 1050 and our 1st tier uptrend line is an encouraging development for the bulls. However, a downward momentum remains in the market, signified by our 2nd tier downtrend line and the pop in sell-side volume equities received on Friday. Therefore, the S&P futures are currently at a crossroads, placing added significance on the upcoming central bank monetary policy decisions. On a positive note, gold's breakout yesterday could imply a forthcoming downturn in the U.S. Dollar, which would be a positive catalyst for the S&P futures. However, we will have to see how the central bank meetings pan out as well as the Dollar's reaction.
Resistances: 1054.75, 1062.5, 1069.75, 1077, 1083.25
Resistances: 1044.75, 1036, 1029.25, 1022.5, 1014.25
Psychological: 1050, 1075, 1000