Confederations Cup 2013: Brazil vs Uruguay Betting Odds, Preview, and Prediction

 
on June 26 2013 3:53 AM
Confederations Cup 2013: Brazil vs Uruguay Betting Odds, Preview, and Prediction

The last time these two teams met was back in 2009 in a World Cup qualifier. The result? A one-sided 4-0 smackdown by Brazil.  This rivalry is full of history and fierce passion and on Wednesday, South American pride is on the line in what is sure to be a physical affair. Let's take a closer look at where some of the value might lie.

Changes

For Brazil, Paulinho is set to return in the midfield after taking some time to rest up and heal his ankle injury. David Luiz suffered a broken nose against Mexico and a bruised leg vs Italy, but he's fit and ready to play. 

Uruguay get their captain, Diego Lugano, back after a one game suspension.  Defender Andres Scotti is not as lucky as he will serve his own suspension after getting sent off vs Tahiti.

Neymar, Neymar, Neymar?

Neymar entered this tournament with a lot of expectations, but he also came with a bit of baggage as there are many Brazilian fans who aren't enamoured with his attitude.  Does three goals in three games on home soil change that perception? 

Unlikely.

For Neymar to truly capture all the hearts and minds of his country faithful, he'll need to reproduce some magic in the big games.  His brilliant goal vs Italy was a good start, but things are ramped up a couple notches now that we are in the semi-finals against a fierce rival.  There were times against Italy where he was rendered invisible thanks to a blanket of attention and smart defending. 

There is no doubt that Uruguay will have a similar plan of attack, along with some heightened physicality.  The good news for Brazil is that Fred found the back of the net a couple of times vs Italy, and this club will needs production from the other attackers if they expect to finish off this World Cup dress rehearsal in style. 

Superstition?

The stakes might not be all that important when all is said and done, but some local Brazilian press have taken it one step further and actually called for Brazil to lose this tournament.  Only in Brazil will you find such talk, but the media have pointed out that Brazil's last three Confederations Cup wins have been followed by World Cup letdowns.

Good bet to score?

On the flip side, Uruguay have put together a nice stretch of games as they've won four of their last five fixtures.  The problem? They have not done well against South American sides, with only one win in their last seven. This is compounded by a lackluster World Cup qualifying run and a less than stellar Olympics. All that would fade into memory with a win against Brazil, and to do it they'll need their three-pronged attack of Suarez, Forlon, and Cavani to step up. 

Suarez and Forlan are competing for top all-time goal scorer in Uruguay football history and each of them have goals in this tournament thus far.  Cavani on the other hand has yet to find the net and now would be a good time to change those fortunes. 

Bottom Line

The handicapp for this game is Brazil -1.5 (even).  That is the perfect line to scare people away from backing Brazil, but is it enough to take a chance on Uruguay?  As tempting as that might be, it's hard to trust Uruguay's form at the moment. The motivation will be there, but can their aggressive game plan be executed? 

Instead, let's continue with the trend of previous games and go with both teams to score.  Both teams have the firepower and neither are necessarily adept at shutting opponents down for 90 plus minutes.  As a bonus, there is some sneaky value on one of the top Uruguayan snipers to score the first goal.

Prediction: Both teams to score (-110), and Suarez (14/1) or Forlan (14/1) to score first.

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