The consensus is that the two picks in the 2012 NFL Draft, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, are the best quarterbacks to come out of the draft since the Colts took Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf in the '98 Draft. However, Luck has less pressure on him for a few reasons. After the Colts' 0-16 season, the Colts can only go upwards. In addition, Luck is taking over a team once controlled by the seemingly omnipotent Peyton Manning. It is like replacing Michael Jordan. Impossible. It's even more difficult when looking at the list of key players that the Colts have lost. Luck does not have a great supporting cast.
So, can there even be a worst case scenario for Luck? Other than suffering a major injury that takes him out for several games or has a like Ryan Leaf or JaMarcus Russell-like implosion Colts fans will be patient with Andrew Luck. Anything better than four wins is a plus for the Colts. But what will this translate in terms of production for Andrew Luck.
Now I want to predict Luck's stats for this year. Luck is even more revered as a rookie than Cam Newton was as a rookie last season. Newton threw for a rookie record, 4051 yards as well as 21 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.
In comparison, Jets quarterback, Mark Sanchez threw for 2,444 yards 12 t touchdowns, 20 interceptions and 106 rushing yards. Luck will fall somewere between Sanchez and Newton's rookie years but what will hurt his output will be the talent around him.
Luck will likely throw for approximately 3,125 passing yards 18 touchdowns and 14 interceptions with. It remains to be seen how often, he'll use his mobility in the NFL. As a rookie, Manning threw for 3,739 yards, 26 touchdowns and 28 interceptions. If Luck did have quality talent around, then I could see Luck easily throwing more than 25 touchdowns.
And from a fantasy perspective no one else is worth taking from the Colts unless you are in a rookie only draft besides Luck.