A #1 seed in the NFC hasn't lost a conference championship game since the 2002 Philadelphia Eagles. Are the Falcons going to join them or will we see them defy the odds?
At what point do we look at an inflated point spread and say enough is enough? The theoretical look-ahead line for this game was at "pick em" before the Divisional round. A bookmaker on the Behind the Bets podcast with Chad Millman said "pick em" was about right statistically, but thought -3 was a proper line to compensate for "perception".
I couldn't agree with him more as my numbers come out around the same. I expected San Fran to be inflated because, like the Patriots, they outperform their stats on a regular basis. Yet, I was surprised that books moved the game off the key number of "3" on Sunday night. Sharps recognized that money was going to pour in on the road team and bet -3 mostly in an anticipatory move and books quickly recognized that they put out a number that was too enticing to bettors across the board.