Are the Baltimore Ravens a team of destiny? Can anybody stop the New England Patriots offense? What does the Gronk injury mean? Let's take a closer look at this AFC conference championship.
Here's a point spread that I expected to come out higher than it should have. In the theoretical look-ahead line prior to the Divisional round, the Patriots were actually -6 favorites vs the Ravens. That's very surprising on every level. What did we see over the weekend to suggest this should come out at -9? By my numbers, the Patriots are clearly more than touchdown favorites in this match-up. I have the "true line" at -7.5. Throughout the week we've seen a trickle of support for the Ravens as we are now looking at -7.5 to -8's across the board. Where will this line go leading up to kickoff? I can't imagine it hitting -7 as most of the general public will be betting both favorites this weekend.
No Mysteries in This Game