We are still at a point on the intraday index charts where support and resistance holds can and will have an effect on the longer term perspective as well. While the ES did not quite rally to our major resistance levels yesterday, the late afternoon timing for a high kicked in with a vengeance and we saw a rapid decline.
Note that while price is holding the key resistance levels on the daily SPX, our momentum indicator hasn't shown a longer term short side trigger yet, and the 50 period CCI respecting zero also opens up the possibility of a confirming long side trigger if the 6 period CCI also crosses back above zero.
The key as to how this will play out can be found on the 45 minute ES chart once again.
If the downside .786 support level at 782.25 is violated, the initial target will be 767.00. This would break Monday's low and could very well trigger an additional series of support breaks leading to a daily short side trigger. A bounce at or before 782.25 would indicate that the market is not ready to commit to this. In that case we'll need to watch new resistance which will be in place once this swing low is established, and I'll update you then. If the decline continues through this morning's session, the timing for a low focuses on the middle of today's session. There's also a timing low on the 15 minute chart based on smaller swings which comes in right at the open.
The timing factors are valid for 1 bar before and one bar after each projection, so this low timing was also valid right at the close yesterday. If it breaks, we look to the next timeframe for stronger timing factors – as seen on the 45 minute chart.
As a possible heads up, note that the corresponding .786 support is holding on the DAX futures.