Our first report of the week came with our weekly export inspection report at 10am Central Time. It put wheat inspections at 17.5 million bushels , up 7 m.b. from the week prior and a year ago. Still not good enough demand to drive prices as we sit with a record 950 m.b. ending-stocks inventory to chew through. We need inspections of 35 m.b. or more weekly to attract buying interest to futures from a demand basis. In the mean time, a rally is all based on trend-following funds' willingness to continue covering or buying back of their once record short held position.
Corn inspections were 28.1 m.b. inspected for near-term shipment down 8 m.b. from the week prior; 3 m.b. under a year ago; and 7 m.b. under our strong four-week average. Inspections year-to-date are 44 m.b. over a year ago. After closing at a five-week high Friday, importers backed off a little as expected, but much of the near-term demand psychology lies on expectations of just how much corn will China buy near-to-long term and that remains a bullish source under the market.
Bean inspections were seasonal at 7.2 m.b. versus 10 m.b. the week prior; 22 m.b. a year ago; and four-week average of 13.2. Were 279 m.b. over a year prior inspection and set for another record export year, but near-term South America continues to garner market share. Just a heads up we have a U.S.D.A monthly crop report out Tuesday, May 11 at 7:30 am Central Time. No one will want to be short into it as expectations will be for a bullish ending-stocks number with further year-end cuts on inventory coming from increased demand.
After the close of trading Monday, our 3:00pm Central Time crop progress and condition reports came out. For wheat, it showed 68% of the crop is in good-to-excellent condition versus 69% the week prior. This is still a great crop as it is well over a year ago of 47% key producers were: Texas 58%; Oklahoma 74%; Nebraska 74%; and Kansas 70% Good-Excellent. No problems here and with more rain expected condition will hold.
The spring wheat crop is 60% planted versus the five-year average of 47% , with 23% emerged from the ground. North Dakota was lagging in the two prior weeks, but has been catching up at 45% seeded. The fast spring wheat pace suggests all the intended acres to be planted will go in and we will not see a switch to the later planted beans.
Corn showed 68% of the crop is now planted, versus the five-year average of 40% with 19% emerged from the ground.
Like spring wheat, the corn's fast pace too suggests all intended acres to be seeded will go in and no switch to beans. There is some thought of that a fast pace means more acres will go in for wheat and corn and less beans. Time will tell.
Soybean planting finally surfaced with 15% planted versus averages of 8%. All key Midwest producers are ahead of last year's slow pace and our five-year average. Not much to read here, but watch the corn and wheat pace as psychology there is friendly for beans. Ok, now what. We priced in the bearish crop progress report and the lower outside markets Monday and Tuesday. Tuesdays low should hold on the week as Wednesday thru Friday has more friendly news. One,heavy rains expected late week and next week slowing the planting. Two, theres talk of a Midwest frost Saturday and Sunday that could damage young bean seedlings and no one will want to be short into next Tuesdays crop report. These are not bullish issues but supportive in posting a weeks low . For those who are looking for another weather source for grains you can get a one month free subscription by going to this site. firstname.lastname@example.org You cant have enough weather reports to use for trading during this period. July corn has support at 3.60 . A close under and 3.50 is next. If it holds , resistance is 3.74 . A close over and 3.88 is next stop. July beans had support today at 9.80 then 9.73 the 40 day moving average. Resistance is 10.05 .A close over and 10.30 is next. July wheat remains in a choppy trend yet trend following funds continue to cover shorts . If july closes over 5.08 on the week we could then test 5.28. A close on the week under 4.88 and watch out.