As discussed yesterday, Fibonacci Price and Time analysis pointed to a possible hold of Wednesday's low. These factors were calculated by measuring the degree and duration of prior corrective declines since the March lows, and projecting forward from the high put in earlier this month on each contract. If the pattern of higher highs/higher lows were to be maintained on the daily charts, Wednesday was the first key date for the rally to resume. As you can see from the charts below, there are actually stronger timing cycles (ES and YM) pointing to a potential low for next week too. This doesn't mean that the timing cycles will pull price lower; it's means that if we see the current swing lows break, any support levels will be reinforced next week too for the potential of an even more solid hold and launch to new daily swing highs.

ES Daily:

YM Daily:

NQ Daily:

ES 45 minute chart shows a rally to the Gartley resistance with price holding yesterday:

This pattern is valid up to 921.00, and if we can rally through that area it will be a strong sign of additional upside to come. A break below 907.00 would confirm that this pattern will play out to downside and bring new daily swing lows instead. I'll need to adjust that support level if we see new swing highs after the open.

YM 45 minute chart holding support, but while we had good short term long side trades yesterday, the lack of 45 minute long side triggers on ES, YM and NQ raises questions as to whether this rally is sustainable. We usually like to see a 45 minute long side trigger to start scaling in to swing holds.

NQ 45 minute currently “stuck” between .786 support and resistance is a warning about the potential for continued chop, until we see a break to one side or the other:

Have a great weekend!

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