Our weekly export inspection report came out at 10a Central time showing 26.6 million bushels of corn was inspected for near term export. This is up from 22 the week prior, four week average of 24.5, and under a year ago of 50m.b; Inspections year to date or 589m.b. vs. 965. It was on the high end of expectations. Additionally it is a better demand number than it appears vs. the year prior numbers as the year prior numbers have the panic buying that occurred on the record run up over embellishing grain demand, and making demand now look slow when in fact is back to normal. I do not see it as a driving force though near term. After a sharp rally last Friday then higher trade on Tuesday's opening filling the gap on the chart between 3.92 and 4.04 we saw profit taking as this week's drier weather in South American was adequately priced in. Today the market saw two sided trade as Wednesday becomes a consolidation trading day and for spreaders before weather traders take a position Thursday and Friday ahead of the weekend. After only marginal weekend rains in South America this week looks hot and dry through Saturday in Argentina and Brazil. The weather in Argentina is more important to corn than Brazil as Argentina corn production is critical to their massive cattle feeding operations. WXRISK.COM the preferred weather site sees the next chance for rain Sunday afternoon into Monday. Then a hot and dry stretch the day following. If weather gurus start building this Sunday system into a big event, traders will be cautious about building a big long position into the weekend as the last two opening week sessions ended the day down. However, one should expect the consistent La-Nina event to yield to a drier forecast or smaller rain totals as Friday comes. If that Sunday rain fails and comes in widely scattered we are set for a gap up opening Monday as key yield time in Argentina leaves little room to recover lost yields. Avoid buying sharp rallies and stick to breaks. March corn has major support at 3.66 and resistance at 4.02.
Wednesday's weekly export inspection report showed 37m.b. of beans were inspected for near term export up from 26.9 the week prior, over the four week average of 27.7 and a year ago of 36m.b. Year to date inspection are 589m.b. vs. 532. This is clearly a bullish demand signal. We will look to Friday's weekly export sales numbers for last week's total sales for further confirmation China is overbooking U.S. beans on fear over Brazil's dry conditions as they move deeper into key yield development time. There is not a lot of news driving beans outside of South American weather updates. Crude oil, the Dow and Dollar Index have taken a back seat. We have seen continued buying of beans and selling corn as a spread with beans trying to buy acres badly needed for Spring planting, yet, corn keeps pace as giving up 3 to 5 m.a. to beans is tolerable but 8 or 9m.a. if beans get to high to corn would be a corn disaster. Stay focused on weather. The March beans has support at 9.80 with resistance at 10.30. A close over 10.30 sets 10.90 as next resistance. A close under 9.80 and 9.50 is next. Like corn, do not buy sharp rallies but buy breaks on the La-Nina consistency to give South American drier and warmer than normal conditions.
We started with our weekly export inspections report showing 6.9m.b. Were inspected for near term export, down from 20.9 the week prior, a year ago of 19.2 and four week average of 11m.b. year to date inspections are 696m.b. vs. 846 a year ago. Same old story, the exports keep coming out of Russia and Europe where the quality and value is- As you know I have consistently for months confirmed on this site we can be no better than a third port of origin for quality milling wheat based on world production comparison. That we have our best chance to see demand return making us the world's primary port for quality milling wheat come late March through June if our winter crop breaks dormancy and grows into our May harvest as high in quality rating as ti was when we went dormant. The only problems remain in Texas and Oklahoma where dryness keeps the quality ratings down below the dormant wheat further north in Colorado to Kansas. This all could change on early spring weather to the worse but at this point the U.S. is set up for a demand surge late March into late Spring. Wheat remain unaffected by south American weather and continues to be the tail of the dog to beans and corn through February. March wheat has support at 5.40 then 5.20 with first resistance at 5.75 today and 6.10 into Friday.