Stocks Surge BUT.....8/29/11

 
on August 30 2011 2:12 AM

A very impressive move in equities today but we're just getting back losses and still well off previous months highs so for what. Crude finally breaks above its short term MA's giving us confirmation and shifting us back to a bullish sentiment. We would continue buying dips with a target of $92/93 in the October WTI contract. Natural gas gave up the ghost today trading to fresh contract lows closing at 5 1/2 month lows. Most clients are currently longs and wrong but we will stay the course holding onto their small position thinking a turnaround is imminent. We are oversold on both the daily and weekly charts and volume is starting to come in. Let's be very clear we are trying to catch a falling knife but often that is how things happen in natural gas. If that is something you are not comfortable with look elsewhere. As of this post indices are higher by 2.15-4.8% having achieved our goal on a trade back to the previous highs. That being said if you took advantage of the most recent appreciation book profits and move to the sidelines. Both gold and silver came under minor pressure trading down 0.50% respectively. We're anticipating more pressure on both metals with our targets as follows; December gold 1690-1710 and December silver $37.50...trade accordingly. The Loonie was higher today hitting our first target at the 38.2% Fibonacci level...if in futures trail stops if in options look for an exit window in September contracts and buy more time on the next set back. We're still expecting a trade lower in the Yen...on a breach of the 20 day MA at 1.2980 expect a trade under 1.2800 where we would exit shorts. OJ is not performing as expected but clients still have some time trading November contracts. If we do not see a return to $1.70 in the coming weeks we would likely cut losses on this transaction...stay tuned. We've yet to make a move in coffee as the action remains unstoppable. We did however position some clients short March sugar who did not act last week. Treasuries appear to be rolling over but we've been fooled here several times in recent months so be patient until we get a clearer picture. A first sign would be a settlement below the 20 day MA in either 10-yr notes or 30-yr bonds. Those levels in December 30-yr bonds is 135'6 and 128'13 in 10-yr notes. Corn has yet to prove too expensive just yet but we think in the next few days our current losing trades will be in the green. Oats generally lead Ag commodities and they reversed today signaling a potential interim top in this sector. As it stands now some clients have exposure looking for December to trade under $7/bushel in the coming weeks. The lower lean hogs and live cattle get the bigger interest we have in buying but to date we've yet to re-establish longs for clients...stay tuned.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Matthew Bradbard MB Wealth Corp. (954) 929-9997 matt@mbwealth.com www.mbwealth.com

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