WHAT HAPPENED OVER THE WEEKEND
... AFTERNOON SEPTEMBER 25 - SEPTEMBER 26 - ... morning SEPTEMBER 27...
MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
Temperatures were close to Normal. with lots of readings in the U 60s and L 70s over the Midwest and Upper and Central Plains... and 75-80 over the Lower Plains and Delta... M and U 80s over the Deep South.
RAINFALL 7AM CDT FRIDAY- 7AM CDT SATURDAY
Almost all area of the Upper Plains were dry but showers / rain did fall over far eastern SD and NEB as well as over Much of the Midwest... and into WVA VA NC and SC as well as KY and TN. Heaviest and best rains fell over eastern KS IA MN WI northern ILL and northern IND.
0.53 at KC 0.29 at Chan 0.88 at Hutchinson and 0.65 and Medicine Lodge 0.46 at Des Moines 0.48 at Waterloo 0.60 at Peoria 0.64 at Rochester MN .
RAINFALL 7AM CDT SATURDAY- 7AM CDT SUNDAY
All areas of the Plains were dry as was Much of the WCB... but good rain fell over the ECB into the TN valley and east coast.
Indy reported 0.18 St Louis 0.22 Cincy 0.35 Columbus OH 1.19 Bloomington IND 0.42 and lots of 1-2 reports over AL GA
eastern TN western SC NC WVA VA MD PA and NJ.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON RADAR
The late Sunday afternoon radar shows several areas of showers and storms across over MN WI and Northern ILL and over NY state
THE BOTTOM LINE
the FROST threat for the Upper Plains MN WI and Northern Iowa for the morning of Tuesday and Wednesday looks weaker. The weather Models over the weekend have the Next system coming in from the West coast Much faster so the cold air from central Canada never gets a chance to settle in. Major slow moving Low is likely for the Midwest OCT
1-4 is likely.
In the SHORT TERM the Sunday afternoon weather map shows the Big Northern Great Lakes Low developing over western Ontario just to the north of Lake Superior. The cold front associated with this Low is sweeping through the Upper Plains and driving into the central Plains and WCB and there are some showers over MN and southern WI. This Low is developing into a major Low as forecasted all last week so three are no changes with this system. Monday and Tuesday will see good rains over the Great Lakes with
North or NW winds up to 40 MPH winds.
The Big High over north central Canada will TRY and move south. By Tuesday morning Temps will be in the L to M 30s over the eastern Dakotas MN WI Eastern NEB and northern IA. There may be a few readings in ND that drop to 29 or 30 degrees for a few hours.
The Big Low north of the Great Lakes will move into eastern Canada by the end of this week and this will affect the pattern over the Midwest and Plains in the Medium Range.
In the MEDIUM RANGE.... But weather models continue to show a the next system coming from the West coast and racing eastward ... into the Rockies by Tuesday night / Wednesday morning. However because of the Low stalled over Quebec THIS next Low will deepen and Stall over the central Plains and WCB OCT 1 -2. This Low will bring heavy rains with good coverage : 75% of 0.50 to 2.00 over Central and eastern ND all of SD all of IA s southern MN and southwest WI.
In the 6-10 DAY... The weather models keep this Low moving slowly east OCT 3-4-5 bringing Moderate rains to the ECB and the New England. Then the pattern repeats itself with a New large trough and surface Low crashing into the West coast OCT 3.
Because of the slow moving Low this week over the Midwest and the Low over Quebec Canada this New system has No where to
go so it is forced to stall over central California and the Great Basin. This Low will bring good rains to the Great Basin and central Rockies OCT 4-5 then moves into MT and the western Dakotas and southern Manitoba with light to moderate rains and less coverage by OCT 6-7. This would mean Above and Much Above Normal temps for the Midwest
In the 11-15 DAY: The Sunday afternoon / 12z GFS shows this bug western / Plains trough moving slowly east which leads to a colder pattern over the Midwest. Not a COLD pattern . Just a colder one.
The Sunday 6-10 day and 11-15 day forecasts from CPC... which are computer generated on the weekends so keep that in mind.
6-10 DAY MAP....
There is a large area of MUCH BELOW NORMAL Temperatures over the Western 33% of the CONUS that extends into the Rockies. The entire rest of the CONUS is is the Near Normal area .
There is a large area of a ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL from the Pacific NW to WI and ILL and into the Delta then over to COL ... southern ID and W. Embedded in that region is a large area of MUCH ABOVE NORMAL rainfall over MT northern ID ND SD northern WY into NEB western MN and western IA. The ECB is in the Near Normal area for Rainfall as is the southeast region
8-14 DAY MAPS ...
There is a large area of BELOW NORMAL Temperatures western third of the CONUS... centered mainly over southern California
and AZ and NM. All of the Plains and Midwest and Deep South regions are in the NEAR NORMAL Temps area. There is a region of BELOW NORMAL Temperatures over the Deep South and eastern Third of the US including the ECB. .
There is a large area of BELOW NORMAL Rainfall over the SW and southern California.. and Above Normal Rainfall over
the central and eastern Plains into the WCB.
The Sunday afternoon 6-10 and 8-14 maps looks pretty reasonable.
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