WHAT HAPPENED  OVER THE WEEKEND
 ... AFTERNOON  SEPTEMBER  25 -  SEPTEMBER 26 - ... morning SEPTEMBER 27...

MAX TEMPERATURES  FRIDAY
Temperatures   were  close to Normal. with  lots of readings in the U 60s and  L 70s over the Midwest  and Upper and Central Plains...  and 75-80 over the Lower Plains  and  Delta...  M and U 80s over the  Deep South.  

MAX TEMPERATURES  SATURDAY
Temperatures were very similar Saturday afternoon to what we saw on Friday afternoon..  

RAINFALL 7AM CDT  FRIDAY-  7AM CDT SATURDAY
Almost all area of the Upper Plains were  dry  but  showers / rain did  fall over    far eastern  SD and NEB  as well as over  Much of the Midwest... and into   WVA  VA  NC   and SC  as well as   KY and TN.    Heaviest and best rains fell  over    eastern KS   IA  MN  WI  northern ILL and  northern IND.  
 0.53 at KC    0.29 at  Chan  0.88 at Hutchinson  and  0.65 and Medicine Lodge  0.46 at Des Moines   0.48 at  Waterloo   0.60 at Peoria   0.64 at Rochester  MN .

RAINFALL 7AM CDT  SATURDAY-  7AM CDT SUNDAY
All  areas of the Plains  were dry  as  was Much of the WCB... but good rain  fell over   the  ECB   into the  TN valley and   east coast. 
Indy reported 0.18   St Louis 0.22    Cincy 0.35    Columbus  OH 1.19   Bloomington  IND 0.42   and lots of 1-2  reports over AL  GA   
eastern TN      western SC  NC   WVA  VA   MD    PA  and  NJ.

SUNDAY  AFTERNOON  RADAR

The late Sunday afternoon radar shows several areas of showers and storms across over  MN  WI   and Northern ILL and over   NY state 

THE  BOTTOM LINE

the  FROST  threat  for the Upper Plains  MN WI and Northern Iowa  for the morning of  Tuesday and  Wednesday looks   weaker.  The   weather Models   over the  weekend  have the Next system coming in from the  West coast   Much faster   so the cold air from  central Canada  never gets   a chance to settle  in.     Major slow moving Low is  likely   for the Midwest OCT
1-4 is likely.  

In the SHORT TERM  the  Sunday  afternoon  weather map shows the Big  Northern  Great Lakes   Low developing  over  western Ontario just to the north of  Lake Superior.   The cold front  associated with this Low  is  sweeping through  the  Upper Plains     and driving into the  central Plains and  WCB  and there are  some showers   over   MN and   southern WI.   This  Low  is  developing  into a  major  Low as forecasted all last week so three are no changes with this system.  Monday and Tuesday will see   good rains over the Great Lakes  with 
North  or NW winds    up to 40 MPH winds.  

The   Big High  over north central  Canada will TRY and move south. By Tuesday morning  Temps will be in the L to M  30s over  the  eastern Dakotas  MN    WI   Eastern  NEB   and northern IA.  There may be a few readings in   ND   that  drop  to 29 or  30 degrees  for a few  hours.

The Big Low    north of the Great Lakes will  move into   eastern Canada by the end of this week  and this will affect the pattern over the  Midwest and Plains  in the Medium Range.

In the MEDIUM RANGE.... But weather models continue to show a  the next system  coming from the  West coast and racing eastward ... into the  Rockies  by    Tuesday    night / Wednesday morning.   However  because of the   Low   stalled over  Quebec  THIS  next  Low will  deepen and Stall    over the central Plains   and  WCB OCT 1 -2. This Low will bring heavy rains with good coverage :  75% of 0.50 to 2.00 over    Central and eastern ND all of  SD    all of IA  s southern MN  and  southwest WI.

 In the  6-10 DAY... The weather models  keep this Low  moving slowly    east  OCT 3-4-5   bringing Moderate rains  to  the  ECB and  the  New England.      Then the pattern   repeats itself  with a New  large     trough  and surface Low  crashing into the  West coast OCT 3.

 Because  of the slow moving Low   this week over the Midwest and the Low over  Quebec Canada   this  New system   has No where to 
go  so it   is forced to stall  over  central California  and   the Great Basin.    This Low will bring     good rains to the  Great   Basin and central Rockies OCT 4-5  then moves into   MT and the    western  Dakotas  and southern   Manitoba with light to moderate rains and  less  coverage by OCT  6-7.  This would mean  Above and Much Above  Normal temps  for the Midwest

In the 11-15 DAY:  The Sunday afternoon / 12z GFS shows   this bug western / Plains trough    moving  slowly  east  which leads to a colder pattern   over the Midwest. Not a  COLD  pattern  . Just a  colder one.   

The Sunday 6-10 day and 11-15 day forecasts from CPC... which are computer generated on the weekends so keep that in mind. 

6-10 DAY MAP....
There is a  large area of    MUCH  BELOW  NORMAL Temperatures    over the  Western  33%  of the CONUS  that extends into the  Rockies.  The entire  rest  of the CONUS is is the   Near Normal area .   

There  is a   large  area of a ABOVE  NORMAL  RAINFALL from  the  Pacific NW  to  WI  and ILL  and into the Delta   then over to  COL ... southern ID and  W.  Embedded  in that region is  a large area of MUCH ABOVE  NORMAL  rainfall  over   MT  northern ID   ND  SD   northern WY  into NEB   western MN and western IA.     The  ECB is in the  Near Normal area   for Rainfall  as is the southeast region

 8-14  DAY MAPS ...

 There is a  large area of    BELOW  NORMAL Temperatures   western  third of the CONUS...  centered mainly over   southern California 
and AZ and NM.    All of the  Plains     and  Midwest and  Deep South  regions  are in the NEAR NORMAL  Temps area.    There is a  region of BELOW NORMAL Temperatures over the Deep South and   eastern  Third of the  US  including the  ECB. .   

There  is a   large  area of BELOW  NORMAL  Rainfall over     the SW   and southern California.. and  Above  Normal Rainfall over
 the   central and eastern  Plains  into the WCB.  

The    Sunday afternoon 6-10    and 8-14 maps  looks   pretty  reasonable.

DT
WxRisk.com
804 307 8070

When everyone is thinking the  same  ... then someone  isn't  thinking --- George S Patton