December Dow Jones - Short from 9675 - Dow Jones futures tumbled early after an unexpected contraction in a gauge of business activity spurred concern the economy is struggling to recover. However, after the early session drop, the Dow Jones futures recovered most of the loss before the close. The stop loss was lowered to the entry price after the early session drop and the short position closed at 9675.
December Japanese yen – It sounds like a possible flip-flop from Japan's finance minister. It was just yesterday and he said that he did not want to intervene to stop the appreciation of the Yen, but today hedged on that statement when he said the government could step into the foreign exchange market. Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii told reporters that If (exchange rates) move abnormally, we could take appropriate measures for our national interest. Although he did not specify what measures could be taken, he was widely believed to have meant a market intervention.
Spurred by his earlier statement, the Yen shot up to a new eight-month high (1.1341), but lost most of the gains before Monday’s close. The sellers continued to have control on Tuesday, as the market dropped another 65 pips before the close. The market is falling into Wednesday’s reversal swing date, where it could set up for a short-term corrective rebound. However, the true signal will come after a two-or three-day corrective rally into the 60% sell window.
December Euro – The EC traded lower for the fourth day in a row and dipped below the 20-day SMA, after Russia said it will maintain the share of U.S. Treasuries in its international currency reserves, reducing concern central banks will diversify away from the greenback. While the long-term trend is bullish, the EC failed to follow through on a breakout of the 9/17-9/21 bullish swing pattern. This price action is setting up a possible TR pattern and a possible trend shift. If this is true, a rally off today’s low could reach the 60% sell window that begins at 1.4712. Therefore, I believe the best plan of action here is to wait for a corrective rally into the sell window on or before the next reversal swing day of October 6.
November Crude oil –Crude oil found support on the ascending reaction line after trading to a low of 65.05 September 25, reversal swing day. Wednesday’s $3.60 rally pushed slightly beyond the 20-day SMA and the downward sloping parallel line.
November Heating oil – The Heating oil surged higher off the swing pivot low that formed on the September 28th reversal swing date. Wednesday’s rally negated the possible bearish swing pattern as the market pushed beyond the 20-day SMA. Today’s price action does not change the trend, but it does suggest November Heating oil may be in the process of forming a TR pattern as we approach the October 7th reversal swing date.
In an active Futures market, price patterns and signals are constantly changing; many times, changes occur between updates of this report. To keep abreast of any intra-day changes to the recommendations in this swing trading report, go to my intra-day Swing Trading Blog at www.reversaltracker.com/blog. In this blog, I post charts with new signals or any changes to existing signals that occur during the day. Make sure you check it out!
December Silver – Long from 16.47 – last price @ 16.67 - In the last few issues, I have been talking about the short side of this market, following the sell signal I posted on September 17th. Since making the recommendation, December Silver futures prices have fallen over $1.40, coming to rest at support provided by the 20-day SMA. The market appears to be poised to make a corrective rally over the next few days. December Silver has posted a close below the 20-day SMA on Friday and is currently trading under the SMA. However, a close above the 16.45 would confirm a “double cross” pattern and trigger a rally to the 16.95 to $17.00 price range. – Hold the long position and move the stop loss to 16.15. The initial target is $16.95. Remember this trade can also be done using the 1000 oz contract (NYLIF Mini Silver.)
December Gold –Gold staged a sharp sell-off after making three consecutive higher highs September 8 thru September 17. The following sell-off caused the price to drop below the 20-day SMA, where it has posted three consecutive closes. This doesn’t bode well for a continuation of the bullish trend. Right now, I suggest standing aside to wait for the October 1st reversal swing day to give a clue to the next direction.
November Soybeans – Short from $9.10 – last price @ $9.27 - Hold the short position with the stop loss at $9.41 stop.
December Cotton –Cotton prices rebounded slightly, following the biggest decline in six weeks on Sept. 25. The market was supported by a report that showed falling production in China, the biggest importer of the cotton fiber. The price decline found support at the 20-day SMA and rebounded slightly on Monday. Buy Cotton at 64.75 stop, with a stop loss at 61.60.