December Dow Jones -Dow Jones futures traded on both sides of unchanged and closed steady. There doesn't seem to be enough momentum to push the market either way, so it remains in trading limbo. While the trend is still bullish, the market is moving to the right of the centerline trend indicator, suggesting the market is losing momentum. The Dow Jones futures reached a new high on Monday's projected reversal swing before losing most of the daily gains at the close, but it is Tuesday's trail day that could give the real clue as to the next move in store for the Dow Jones futures. At the time I'm writing this commentary, the indicator is still bullish. I'll wait another day for a confirming pattern before taking any position.
December Eurocurrency – Long from 1.4825 – last price @ 1.4825 - The euro climbed to the highest level against the dollar in the past year, unwinding gains the U.S dollar posted when the plunge in global financial markets spurred demand for safety. According to the Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, “The dollar’s share in global foreign currency holdings will decline, giving room to “supranational” currencies in a “gradual diversification.” Overnight trading triggered the buy signal as the market responded to the “trail day” bullish directional indicator. Hold the long position, with the stop loss at 1.4675.
December Japanese yen – As the US dollar continues to lose favor, the Yen continues to gain favor. The recent three-day correction found support at the 20-day SMA and quickly rebounded to closed near the high of the daily range. The separation from the low to the close is a positive indicator that the Yen has ended the corrective sell-off and is poised for a test of the recent high of 1.1386 from October 10. Buy the Japanese yen at 1.1195 stop, with the stop loss at 1.1085.
November Heating oil – Long from 1.8495 – last price 1.9248 - Heating oil continued to trade higher off the bullish TR swing pattern and has closed higher four days in a row. I look for the market to continue to trade towards the ascending upper reaction line with a target objective at 1.9650. Hold the long position and move the stop loss to 1.8655.
December Gold – The surging Gold market reached a new high of $1,069.70 on Tuesday, but fell short of the reaction line target objective. Gold could push higher overnight, as it trades into Wednesday’s projected reversal swing day. A new high, on the projected reversal swing day, would suggest a possible reversal “setup” as time and price converge. However, this is not a sell signal, but it is a “heads up” to look for a possible market correction over the next few days.
December Corn – Long from $3.43 – last price $3.81 ¼ – December corn straddled the ascending centerline and closed slightly above it, as it tries to build enough momentum to push higher into the October 19th reversal swing day. Hold the long position and keep the profit stop to $3.72.
December Cotton - Rain continues to fall in Texas and around the Mississippi River Delta. The Palmer Drought map already shows excessively moist conditions in Arkansas and Mississippi. The wet weather is causing concern for the cotton crops and triggered a late session rally. Cotton traded out of a two-month consolidation pattern and closed above the previous swing highs. The market may test the new support (old resistance) and offer a good buying opportunity. Buy cotton at 65.60 or lower, with the stop loss at 63.25.
December Soybean oil – Bean oil was a late arrival to the recent bullish trends in the soy complex, but the pattern is a good one. Tuesday’s pullback is providing an opportunity to enter a long position before bean oil resumes the upward trend. Buy bean oil at 35.59 or lower, with a stop loss at 34.20.