Swing Trading Report
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
December Dow Jones - The Dow Jones futures traded lower, early in the session, on speculation the six-month rally has outpaced prospects for profit growth. However, the market slowly reclaimed the most of the daily loss by the end of the session. The Dow Jones futures chart has formed a bullish swing pattern and appears poised to make one more test of the 9,797 high on the September 22nd reversal date.
December Canadian dollar -Long from .9315 - The Canadian dollar pushed to a new high, reaching .94444 on September 17, but ran into trouble when it could not find any new buyers. The market reversed and dropped to the 21-day SMA at .9227, closing the long position at .9325. This looks like a swing pattern failure and a sign of some weakness that could cause the Canadian to move into a short-term consolidation pattern. In that case, it would be best to stand aside and wait for a new pattern to develop before taking a new position.
November Crude oil - Long from 7295 - Crude broke to a new high on Thursday, but stalled on Friday. Crude came under heavy selling pressure during Monday's early session and dropped through support to close the long position at 7023. The market appears to still be trading in the sideways consolidation, but could be forming a bullish TR pattern. However, the risk is high at this time, so I will wait for a confirming pattern to identify the next likely direction before taking a position.
November Soybeans - Soybeans are moving to the right of the descending centerline. This shows the market is beginning to strengthen, even as it is drifting lower. So we need to be cautious of any short positions at this time. Tuesday's one-day rally to the upper parallel line was caused by a weather scare. Since then, Soybeans have moved lower due to improving weather forecasts. However, Soybeans have moved into the 60% buy window and have formed a potential TR pattern with a reversal swing day due on Tuesday. All this makes the soybeans a good market to watch for a possible turnaround and buy signal. Buy Soybeans at $9.41 stop, with a protective stop under the swing low.
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December Gold - Long from $1,001.00 - The long position was closed at $1,010.00 for a nice gain. Gold looks like a market ready for a correction after making three higher highs and reaching the upper parallel reaction line on September 17th. This pattern, combined with bearish divergence, is waving a red flag for Gold over the short-term. Any rally to $1,014.00 will set up a selling opportunity.
December Corn - There is a possible bullish TR pattern setting up in the December Corn. After Tuesday's rally, the market has settled back over the past two days and formed a possible reaction swing pattern. The retracement has traded into the 60% buy window and tested support at the lower parallel action line. If this support holds, it could trigger a significant turnaround in the Corn and trigger a strong buy signal. Buy Corn at $3.30 stop, with a stop loss at $3.01.
December Silver - On September 17, I posted an alert on the www.reversaltracker.com/blog that Silver had reached the target objective where the descending reaction line and ascending centerline were converging. The high was $17.69. Three days later, Silver is trading over $1.00 lower, currently at $16.60, as we approach the next reversal swing day, due on Tuesday. A lower trade into this swing date can set up a reversal and rebound to 17.21. Silver has completed the cycle and is most likely moving into correction or consolidation phase before resuming the upward trend.
December Soybean oil - The recent corrective rally hit resistance at the 20-day SMA. The corrective rally was triggered by a one-day weather scare, but has since drifted sideways and traded inside the September 15th trading range. The September 15th rally did trade above the prior pivot high, shifting the trend from lower to neutral, but Monday's low dropped into the 60% buy window. This all adds up to a possible bullish TR pattern. Buy Bean oil at 35.30 stop, with a stop loss below the swing low.