September Dow Jones – The Dow Jones futures closed lower for the third day, making this the longest losing streak since early July. The sell-off has found some support at the 20-day SMA and may manage one more rally into the September 9 th reversal date. However, I think the real damage has been done to the charts and any rally will be short-lived and should be considered an opportunity to exit longs or enter new short positions.
September Japanese yen –Long from 1.0710 – Last price @ 1.0773 – The Yen used Friday's inside day as a launching pad and traded to a new four-week high, posting the third close above the previous swing high (1.0707). This increases the probability of the market reaching the 1.0900 target objective on or before the September 3 rd swing trade date (reversal date). Hold the long position and raise the stop loss to 1.0625.
October Crude oil – Short from 69.75 – last price @ 68.14 - Crude traded on both sides of unchanged today, but the early session rally was stopped short at the 20-day EMA, but just high enough to fill the 69.75 sell. At this point, sellers took control and the market faded the rest of the day and accelerated to a new low at the close. Hold the short position, with the stop loss at 69.70 and a target objective of 67.45.
September Dollar Index – Long from 78.52 – Last price @ 78.77 – Finally a close over the 20-day SMA. Hold the long position and keep the stop loss at 77.80.
September Canadian dollar – Short from 91.55 – last price @ 9053 - The bearish TR pattern (a swing trade strategy that signals a major trend shift) was confirmed on August 28. Since I have already closed the first short position for a slight gain, I used a retest of the 20-day SMA for the second sell entry. Hold the short position and move the stop loss to 91.75. The market is set to trade lower into the September 7 reversal date, with a target objective of 89.00.
December Hogs – Long from 47.62 – Last price @ 47.15 – Hogs closed higher today, but they are not coming out of the swing pattern with as much momentum as I like to see with this type of pattern. It's time to tighten the stop and let the market show us its new hand. Move the protective stop to 45.55.
November Soybeans – Short from $9.79 – last price @ $ 9,58 ½ - November soybeans are trading lower, with favorable weather building expectations for a big harvest this fall. So far, fears of early cold weather are not showing in the forecasts. There are also concerns that Chinese state-owned firms may be allowed to walk away from money-losing commodity derivative trades.
Soybeans hit resistance at the upper downward sloping reaction line on Monday's reversal date. Early in Monday's session, the soybeans traded above Friday's high of $10.17 1/2 before the reversal kicked in, causing the market to collapse and trade below Friday's low, closing as an “outside day”. An “outside day”—on a projected swing trade date (reversal date)—is a reversal confirmation and sell signal. The reverse/forward count projects the next reversal date due on Sept 9, with a downside target objective of $8.50. Hold the short position with the stop loss at $9.85.