Most of us who use technical over an intermediate term have been thrown for a loop for much of the past few years as a lot of old rules seemingly have become irrelevant. (insert grassy knoll here) However the past few weeks, things have been a lot like last spring and early summer (ex May 6th!) which was the only time a lot of the old rules seemed to work, and trading was a 'pleasure'. I am not sure exactly why we've reverted back but it's making me feel suddenly smarter.
This morning I wrote:
Thus far all day, 1295 has been the stymie point. In fact, we are sitting there as I type. Nice to see something normal for a few hours at least. This is the old support becomes resistance idea, that used to work like a charm pre 2009. The past few years its been resistance is futile.
S&P 1306 is a lot more important for the intermediate term - it is the 100 day moving average, and unless my eyes are deceiving me it is begging to take on a downward slope. The 50 day is firmly in downward slope way up at 1323.
Still would be staying small and cautious until we get substantially higher... or lower. This is part of the cursory oversold bounce I mentioned yesterday, until proven otherwise. We're quite oversold still.