Weekly Report (11-15 July, 2011) for Crude Oil Futures for August Settlement

The 50 days SMA (in gold) near 99.00 area resisted the upside move, and successfully halted oil from testing 100.00. the commodity reversed to the downside to trade at the moment below the previously breached neckline of the head and shoulders pattern we mentioned in our previous reports, while this is a bearish indication we need a confirmation through stability and a four-hour closing below 95.70 to increase the odds of a bearish intraday move. However to confirm bearishness for the week we need a daily closing below 94.60 (the gray area).

Trading range for the week is among the major support at 87.00 and the major resistance at 102.00.

The short term trend is to the downside with steady daily closing below 104.60, targeting 85.00.

Previous Report

RecommendationBased on the charts and explanation above we recommend waiting for a four-hour closing below 95.70 then selling oil targeting 94.20 and 93.00. Stop loss with four-hour closing above 95.90 may be appropriate