Weekly Report (18-22 July, 2011) for Crude Oil Futures for September Settlement

We mentioned in our previous report that breaching 96.00 shall accelerate upside momentum and send the commodity higher, indeed oil achieved our first target near 97.70 where it found good resistance by the 50 days SMA that halted the continuation of the upside move and oil retraced toward 96.90, we expect the upside move to continue this week however, this requires breaching 97.70 followed by 99.50, as the 5-0 pattern still has targets starting from 101.00 and breaching 97.70 should increase the probability of the continuation toward the highs near 99.50 again. The commodity trading is well confined among the short term ascending channel, breaching the support of the ascending channel shall weaken the upside bias while breaching 93.50 may invalidate it.

Trading range for the week is among the major support at 91.50 and the major resistance at 103.00

The short term trend is to the downside with steady daily closing below 105.00, targeting 85.00

Previous Report

RecommendationBased on the charts and explanation above we recommend buying oil around 96.50 targeting 99.00, 101.00 and 103.00. Stop loss with four-hour closing below 95.75.