Summary

EUR/CZK

Koruna broke through 26.00 range and is testing 26.40 level.

Combination of strong 26.40 level, upper bound of trend channel and overbought RSI should curb further weakening of koruna, so there should be temporary consolidation slightly above 26.40 level. Return below 26.40 and subsequent breakthrough of lower bound of trend channel will be signal of end of short-term trend and return to below 26.00. However, more likely is continuation of trend after short consolidation and weakening towards 26.80 level, due mainly to stronger upward momentum.

 

EUR/PLN

Zloty has continued its consolidation in 4.15 - 4.28 range.

Upward mid-term momentum means moderate risk of pressure on 4.28 level. We consider further consolidation in 4.15 - 4.28 range as most likely scenario, as most other indicators are flat.

 

EUR/HUF

Forint corrected to over 273 level.

Combination of 273 level and 200-day moving average should support forint; most likely scenario is return to below 273 level. Second possibility is short consolidation and then fast weakening towards 285 level.

EUR/RON

Leu is consolidating slightly above 4.28 level.

Further consolidation above 4.28 level is likely. Leu will eventually return to 4.23 level in mid-term horizon, supported mainly by weakening upward momentum.

 

EUR/USD

Dollar fell below 1.48 level.

Correction stopped for now below 1.48 level and 20-day moving average. It may extend to 60-day moving average (roughly 1.45), but momentum is still so weak that we do not expect further immediate significant strengthening of dollar. Most likely scenario is consolidation in 1.45 - 1.48 range and eventual testing of 1.48 level.

 

EUR/JPY

EURJPY rebounded from 138 level.

Strengthening of yen should continue back to 129 level.

EUR/CHF

EURCHF is in consolidation around 1.515, momentarily close to 1.5095 auxiliary level.

Most likely technical scenario is continuing consolidation close to 1.515. Second most likely is creation of declining trend towards 1.47 level.

Copper

Copper is in mid-term rising trend.

It is likely that copper will enter consolidation phase similar to August-September consolidation. Main reason for expected consolidation is that copper is losing momentum.