Summary

EUR/CZK
Koruna rebounded from 25.50 level after short consolidation.
Koruna should stop its weakening on 26.00 level. Most likely technical scenario is short consolidation in the 25.80 –
26.00. Later is likely pressure on 26.00 level, quite likely successful (MACD signal).

EUR/PLN
Zloty broke through 4.15 level, but then returned to it.
Exchange rate may repeat August- September consolidation close to 4.15 level. Second possibility is trend toward
4.00 psychological target.

EUR/HUF
Forint rebounded from 266 level.
Most likely technical scenario is consolidation in 266 – 273 range.

EUR/RON
Dollar is in consolidation in 1.48 – 1.50 range.
Further consolidation around 4.28 level is likely. Leu will eventually return to 4.23 level in mid-term horizon. Such view
is supported mainly by MACD and RSI20 development.

EUR/USD
Dollar is in consolidation in 1.48 – 1.50 range.
Continuing consolidation is most likely technical scenario. Testing of 1.50 level is more likely than 1.48 level, because of upward
mid-term momentum (MACD, ROC60).

EUR/JPY
EURJPY is declining towards 129 level.
Most likely technical scenario is strengthening of yen to the vicinity of 129.

EUR/CHF
EURCHF is in consolidation around 1.515, momentarily close to 1.5095 auxiliary level.
Most likely technical scenario is continuing consolidation close to 1.515. Much less likely is creation of declining trend
towards 1.47 level.

Copper
Copper is in rising trend, testing 315 level.
Testing of 315 level should be unsuccessful and copper should consolidate in 300 – 315 range, because upward
momentum seems to be too weak for further immediate strengthening.

Analyst: Luboš Mokráš
lmokras@csas.cz

EUR/CZK

- Main trend: consolidation
- Short-term trend: growth
R4: 27.00 psychological
R3: 26.80 top
R2: 26.40 consolidation
R1: 26.00 psychological, top, bottom
S1: 25.80 consolidations
S2: 25.50 consolidation
S3: 25.20 consolidation
S4: 25:00 psychological, bottom
S5: 24.80 consolidation
_ Koruna rebounded from 25.50 level after short
consolidation.
_ MACD turned up and send sell signal for koruna.
_ Both ROCs are close to zero level. ROC60 is turning up.
_ RSI jumped above neutral level.
_ Koruna should stop its weakening on 26.00 level. Most
likely technical scenario is short consolidation in the
25.80 – 26.00. Later is likely pressure on 26.00 level,
quite likely successful (MACD signal).

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EUR/PLN

_ Main trend: consolidation
_ Short-term trend: consolidation
R6: 4.85 Fibonacci projection level
R5: 4.65 local top
R4:4.50 Fibonacci level, psychological
R3: 4.39Fibonacci level, top of consolidation
R2: 4.28 Fibonacci level, bottom of consolidation
R1: 4.15 top
S1: 3.93 tops
_ Zloty broke through 4.15 level, but then returned to it.
_ MACD declined below zero level.
_ Both ROC’s are close to zero level in sideways trend.
_ RSI is in sideways trend close to neutral level (50
points).
_ Exchange rate may repeat August- September
consolidation close to 4.15 level. Second possibility is trend
toward 4.00 psychological target.

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EUR/HUF

_ Main trend: consolidation
_ Short-term trend: growth
R5: 316 top
R4: 304 top
R3: 295 bottoms
R2: 285 top
R1: 273 top
S1: 266 tops
S2: 258 tops, bottom level of consolidation
S3: 255 tops, top level of consolidation
_ Forint rebounded from 266 level.
_ MACD declined below zero level.
_ Both ROCs are close to zero level.
_ RSI is close to neutral level.
_ Most likely technical scenario is consolidation in 266
– 273 range.

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EUR/RON

_ Main trend: consolidation
_ Short-term trend: consolidation
R1: 4.35 top
S1: 4.28 consolidation, top
S2: 4.23 Fibonacci projection, bottom of consolidation
S3: 4.07 Fibonacci projection
S4: 3.97 Fibonacci projection level, top
S5: 3.80 top
S6: 3.65 top, top level of consolidation
S7: 3.60 consolidation, bottom level of consolidation,
psychological
_ Leu is consolidating around 4.28 level.
_ MACD is in slow declining trend just above zero level.
_ ROC60 is in sideways trend above zero level. ROC20
is testing zero level.
_ RSI returned to neutral level.
_ Further consolidation around 4.28 level is likely. Leu
will eventually return to 4.23 level in mid-term horizon. Such
view is supported mainly by MACD and RSI20 development.

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EUR/USD

_ Main trend: rising
_ Short-term trend: rising
R2: 1.53 bottom of consolidation
R1: 1.50 psychological
S1: 1.48 top
S2: 1.43 tops
S3: 1.40 psychological, consolidations
S4: 1.37 tops
S5: 1.30 psychological, bottom
_ Dollar is in consolidation in 1.48 – 1.50 range.
_ MACD is in sideways trend above zero level.
_ ROC60 is in mid-term sideways trend above zero
level. ROC2 is testing zero level.
_ RSI is in sideways trend around neutral level.
_ Continuing consolidation is most likely technical
scenario. Testing of 1.50 level is more likely than 1.48 level,
because of upward mid-term momentum (MACD, ROC60).

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EUR/JPY

_ Main trend: consolidation
_ Short-term trend: consolidation
R6: 150 psychological
R5: 148 bottom
R4: 146.0 Fibonacci projection level
R3: 143.5 Fibonacci projection level
R2: 138.0 tops
R1: 135.4 Fibonacci projection level
S1: 129.0 tops of consolidations
S2: 126.0 bottom level of consolidation, tops
S3: 122.0 Fibonacci projection level
S4: 117.0 bottoms
_ EURJPY is declining towards 129 level.
_ MACD is in slow declining trend. It just broke through
zero level.
_ Both ROCs are in volatile sideways trend around zero
level.
_ RSI is in sideways trend around zero level.
_ Most likely technical scenario is strengthening of yen
to the vicinity of 129.

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EUR/CHF

_ Main trend: sideways
_ Short-term trend: rising
R5: 1.620 bottom, top level of consolidation
R4: 1.595 bottom level of consolidation
R3: 1.570 consolidation
R2: 1.550 bottom
R1: 1.515 bottom of consolidation
S1: 1.4871 Fibonacci level
S2: 1.470 bottoms
S3: 1.435 bottom
_ EURCHF is in consolidation around 1.515, momentarily
close to 1.5095 auxiliary level.
_ MACD is in sideways trend slightly below zero level.
_ Both ROC’s are in sideways trend very close to zero
level.
_ RSI is in sideways trend around neutral level.
_ Most likely technical scenario is continuing consolidation
close to 1.515. Much less likely is creation of declining trend
towards 1.47 level.

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Copper

_ Main trend: growth
_ Short-term trend: growth
R1: 315 Fibonacci level
S1: 300 Fibonacci level, psychological, tops, bottom of
consolidation
S2: 280 Fibonacci level, bottom of consolidation
S3: 246 top
S4: 221 tops, bottoms
S5: 186 bottom
_ Copper is in rising trend, testing 315 level.
_ MACD is in volatile sideways trend above zero level.
_ Both ROC’s are in sideways trend slightly above zero
level.
_ RSI is just below overbought level.
_ Testing of 315 level should be unsuccessful and
copper should consolidate in 300 – 315 range, because
upward momentum seems to be too weak for further
immediate strengthening.

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