ThinkEquity has outlined its top consumer stock picks for 2011. The stocks include: Life Time Fitness, PetSmart, Williams-Sonoma, Coach, and Advance Auto Parts.
Life Time Fitness Inc. (NYSE: LTM) -- The brokerage expects Life Time Fitness as a best-in-class operator of fitness centers that is likely to benefit over the next four years from: Improving industry conditions and market share gains; Leverage of prior infrastructure investments and fixed expense; and Deleveraging of the balance sheet.
ThinkEquity sees potential for 12.5 percent to 17.5 percent revenue growth and 15 percent-plus EPS growth through 2014, bringing Life Time Fitness' total revenue and earnings potential to $1.5 billion and $4.50-plus.
PetSmart, Inc. (NASDAQ: PETM) -- The brokerage is compelled by the potential benefits to both comparable-store-sales and margins (and subsequently earnings) over the next several years as the company benefits from a refocusing of stores to emphasize higher-margin products and categories.
ThinkEquity believes there is potential for 15 percent-plus EPS growth over the next three to five years, driven by: 3 percent to 4 percent year-over-year door growth, low- to mid-single-digit comps, margin expansion of 150 to 200 basis points, and accretive share repurchases. Over the next four to five years, ThinkEquity sees potential for revenue and EPS to exceed $7.5 billion and $4.50.
Williams-Sonoma Inc. (NYSE: WSM) -- The brokerage still expects Williams-Sonoma to be a net market share gainer over the next several years. Over the past five years, Williams-Sonoma has gained over 150 basis points of market share in a highly fragmented industry.
ThinkEquity sees potential for an additional 25 basis points of market share gains in 2011, which it anticipates will help drive growth in direct operations and help provide support for comps even in a lagging recovery in home-related goods.
We see potential for low- to mid-single-digit revenue growth, and operating margin expansion from 9-13%+ over the next 3 to 4 years, helping drive what we believe is a sustainable 15-20% earnings growth over the next 3 to 4 years, suggesting potential earnings power of $3.60 a share, the analysts at ThinkEquity wrote in a note to clients.
Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) -- ThinkEquity still expects shares of Coach as attractive, as the company continues to increase its share of the North American handbag market, rapidly penetrates the Chinese market, and gradually boosts its already-rich operating margins.
Although we believe Coach will face more challenging comparisons during calendar 2011, we expect the company to generate solid comp growth based on the recovering confidence of its core 'aspirational' customer (which has a much lower-than-average unemployment rate, we believe) and the steady introduction of attractive handbag collections, the analysts say.
Coach’s Chinese operations sales quickly expanded to over $100 million during fiscal 2010 and appears on track to approach $250 million in fiscal 2012. In addition, the company is tapping growth opportunities in other Asian and European markets.
Although Coach generates operating margins in excess of 30 percent, the brokerage believes the company still has opportunities to further boost profit rates, which remain well below record levels. Coach’s cash flows are more than enough to fund a 7 percent rate of physical expansion and its aggressive share repurchase program, in the brokerage's opinion.
Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP) -- The brokerage expects Advance Auto to continue benefiting from the favorable cyclical and secular trends in the auto aftermarket that have increased the average age of a vehicle on the road to over 10 years.
In addition, as Advance continues to successfully execute its turnaround and transformation strategies, the brokerage projects a substantial improvement in the company’s operating margin in 2011 and beyond. With unemployment rates likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future, in brokerage's opinion, the rate of new car sales is unlikely to stage a quick rebound to an annual rate of 14 million units or higher.
Unlike in earlier eras, vehicles manufactured today can easily remain in service after 100,000-200,000 miles, but only if drivers invest repair and maintenance dollars on them. As the “Big Three” parts retailers, including Advance Auto, aggressively address the commercial market place, smaller operators are increasingly unable to effectively compete on price, parts availability and delivery service, in brokerage's view.
Despite boosting its profitability substantially thus far in FY10, we believe that Advance can narrow the gap with its nearest competitor in the years ahead. The recent attainment of an investment grade rating by two of the major rating agencies has enabled Advance to increase the vendor financing of its inventories and to accelerate its share repurchases, the analysts say.