Toyota Motor Corp and Ford Motor Co are likely to outsell General Motors Co in the U.S. market by 2015 -- when industry sales will finally return to levels last seen in 2000, according to an industry forecasting firm.
Faltering Chrysler Group LLC is also expected to lose market share in a recovering market and by 2015 its U.S. sales will be on par with those of surging Hyundai Motor Co, IHS Global Insight said at a presentation on Wednesday.
The shift in volume from GM and Chrysler to Toyota, Ford, and other manufacturers will be massive, said George Magliano, an IHS Global Insight analyst.
Toyota already overtook GM in global sales last year.
GM emerged from bankruptcy on July 10 by selling most of its assets to a group led by the U.S. Treasury, and Chrysler emerged from bankruptcy in June by completing a similar sale process to a group led by Italy's Fiat.
Ford, the only U.S. automaker that has not sought emergency government loans to run operations, has gained market share in recent months at the expense of GM and Chrysler. It currently ranks third in U.S. sales behind GM and Toyota.
Ford will overtake GM as the leading U.S. automaker in its domestic market in the next several years, Magliano said.
Magliano forecasts U.S. industry auto sales are likely to climb back to top 17.3 million units by 2015 -- comparable to 2000. The forecasting firm sees 2009 auto sales above 10 million units and 2010 sales between 11 million and 11.5 million units.
He expects Toyota, currently No.1 in U.S. sales, to sell about 3 million vehicles in 2015 for a market share of nearly 17 percent, followed by Ford and GM in the 2.5 million to 3 million unit range.
Chrysler's U.S. sales are forecast at about 1.25 million units in 2015 for a market share of 7.2 percent -- down from 11 percent in 2008, IHS Global Insight said.
That would put Chrysler on par with Hyundai in U.S. sales -- the best-performing major automaker in the United States this year, the company forecast. Hyundai in 2009 is the only major automaker to increase U.S. sales.
(Reporting by Soyoung Kim and Bernie Woodall, editing by Leslie Gevirtz)