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The markets are wrapping up the week with a closed Wall Street, due to the 4th July Holiday weekend, and have seen the major pairs run sideways and virtually close at their opening prices. Global equities were lower by 0.5%, and oil and gold traded flat; in all, a period of trade that reflected the previous eight weeks of nothing.
The only pair to really make a move was cable, and that looks to be little more than regular book balancing. The major pairs are at at oversold status against the dollar, and it is very unlikely that the next leg of Usd buying will come before a reversal happens.
On a macro level, the markets are showing a business cycle of trough, expansion, growth, peak, contraction, back to trough. But, not in the regular five to ten year timeframe; these currency markets are doing it on a weekly, and sometimes daily basis.
The move from an average 8 years to complete a cycle is now running every 8 hours, and that is the way it will stay until volume increases and the 4 hour chart ranges break. The equity bear is knocking hard now, and has already visited Russian markets, and unless volume picks up to form a support base we may be dealing with macro business cycles for a little while.
The near-term answer is to over-prepare, and then go with the flow in selling test of resistance, and buying the tests of support, using the previous session's highs and lows as the main price point areas. However, the tests need to happen in-line with the Asian, European, and U.S. market opens and closes.
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