Non-Farm Payrolls (Jan) Actual 598k, Expected -530k, Previous -577k (Revised from -524k)
Unemployment Rate (Dec) Actual 7.6%, Expected 7.5%, Previous 7.2%
Release Explanation: A statistic researched, recorded and reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics intended to represent the total number of paid U.S. workers of any business. The report excludes the following employees:
The NFP impacts the Market with huge volatility because of the constant revisions to the previous reporting periods. The accompanying Employment % number tends to be much more reliable in its monthly report. The Average Hourly Earnings will add to, or contain the impact of the number of jobs created. These 3 components go to make for explosive NFP Fridays.
Outside of the Interest Rate Statement, this is the most important guide for US$ Traders planning for the weeks and months ahead as the Labor Market will indicate the potential strength of future economic growth. A strong economy usually equates to a strong currency.
Trade Desk Thoughts: Payrolls declined by 598,000 in January, an increase of 21,000 over December's upwardly revised figure of a 577,000 decline, the Labor Department said today. It was the biggest single-month loss of jobs since December 1974. The economy has now lost jobs for thirteen straight months.
By every measure, the report is a disaster, said Matthew Carniol, chief currency strategist at TheLFB-forex.com. Today's figures will put further pressure on lawmakers to pass the stimulus package quickly.
The government included revisions for all of 2008, which showed roughly 400,000 more job losses than first thought. The economy has shed 3.5 million jobs since January 2008, the largest 12-month decline since the government started compiling those figures in 1939. Job losses have accelerated over the past three months, with about half the total amount lost occurring over that period.
The unemployment rate jumped 0.4 percentage points to 7.6%, a 16-year high. When taking into account marginally attached and those working part time because they can't find full time work, the unemployment rate reached 13.9% in January, nearly 5 percentage points from a year ago.
Average hourly earnings increased a modest $0.05, or 0.3%, to $18.46. That was up 3.9% from one year ago.
By sector, jobs in goods-producing industries plunged by over 300,000. Within this group, manufacturing firms cut 207,000 jobs, the most since the 1982 recession. Construction employment was down by 111,000. Service-sector employment tumbled 279,000. Business and professional services companies shed 121,000 jobs, the third-straight six-figure loss, and financial-sector payrolls were down 42,000. Retail trade cut over 45,000 jobs, the 12th-straight loss, while leisure and hospitality businesses shed 28,000.
Health care and education, along with government, were the two only sectors which saw an increase, adding 54,000 and 6000 respectively.
Forex Technical Reaction: S&P futures were up 0.18% prior to the report and rose to a 0.36% gain in the minutes after the release of January's number. The dollar moved lower against Australia's currency and the pound, while it rose on the yen. The euro was little changed.