USD-CHF @ 0.9548/51...Bullish
R: 0.9580-600 / 0.9675 / 0.9710-15 S: 0.9466 / 0.9414-400-380 / 0.9345
Dollar-Swiss was ranged between 0.9400-600 last week.The overall picture still remains bullish. We see strong Supports in 0.9400-9380 region and then at 0.9345. Also the 21-DMA (currently at 0.9414) is holding very well and is restricting the downmove. Having said this, we see the broad 0.9415-9345 region to be a strong Support region which we expect to hold. Dips to this Support region can be bought. But whether we will see a dip to 0.9400 now is the question because there is a good intermediate Support at 0.9466, which is a Trendline Support on the weekly and also the neckline Support of the failed Double Top on the 4-hr chart. Dip and a bounce back from this Support level will then result in the formation of an inverted Head and Shoulder pattern which would again be a very good bullish signal.
Putting all these together, there is no threat on the downside and the pair is expected to remain bullish. On the upside 0.95870-600 will be the immediate Resistance region to be watched. Note the 100-Week-MA is currently at 0.9570. A break above 0.9600 can take it further up towards 0.9715 which is a strong Resistance level. We expect this 0.9715 Resistance to hold on its first test. A further break above 0.9715 will open doors for a test of 0.9900-1.000
Trade ideas for the week: 1) Buy on dips to 0.9400-380 with stop below 0.9340 2) Watch whether the Support at 0.9466 and if a bounce back happens from here, enter Long at the market.
GBP-USD @ 1.5305/08...Bearish
R: 1.5380-400 / 1.5480-5510 S: 1.5280 / 1.5175 / 1.5126
Cable failed to break above 1.5500 last week and remains bearish. 1.5380-5400 will now be an immediate significant Support-turned-Resistance region to be watched. And 1.5485-5510 is a very strong Resistance region that has held very well last week. We may expect the 1.5380-400 Resistance region itself to hold this week. We see good chances of a fall to 1.5150-00 on the downside. 1.5175 and 1.5126 are the important Supports seen on the weekly chart and 1.5118 is an important Support on the monthly. An immediate break below 1.5100 might not be seen, but the chances cannot be ruled out. A bounce back rally to 1.5350-400 is possible from this 1.5150-00 Support region. However, a strong break below 1.5100 will be very bad and it would open doors for further fall to 1.4850-4750. Also, the break below 1.5100 could leave high chances of seeing the lower end of the broad range 1.4200-7000 as seen on the monthly chart.
Trade ideas for the week: 1) Sell rallies to 1.5450-5500 2) Watch the 1.5380-400 Resistance region and sell at the market if a pull back is seen from this Resistance region. 3) Buy in 1.5120-00 region with a tight stop
AUD-USD @ 1.0287/90...Mixed and ranged
R: 1.0380-400 / 1.0440-70 S: 1.0250-30 / 1.0150 / 1.0100
Aussie remains mixed and ranged between 1.0230-0380. The immediate outlook is not clear. we will have to wait for a breakout on either side of this 1.0230-0380 sideways range. We see 1.0100 to be a very strong Support level for the pair which is expected to hold. While above 1.0100, there is no threat on the downside. However, at the same time we see significant Resistances as well on the upside at 1.0380-400 and 1.0440-70 regions which could restrict the upmove very well. OVerall we might look for a broad range of 1.0100 on the downside and 1.0450-70 in the upside and this range can be traded during the week. As of now, we do not have any specific trade ideas for the week. We will look at how the market moves and then take trades accordingly.