I’ve found it useful to make an assessment of how trends might develop and generally, I’ve been fairly accurate.
Back in the summer of 2007, I turned very negative on stocks primarily because the Fed was preparing to lower rates (which it only does in times of trouble). The S&P peaked in October of that year and then declined until the Lehman collapse, from where it fell even further.
I turned bullish in the Spring of 2009 and remained that way until about April and have been neutral since. But now, I feel as though I have a pretty good idea of where things will go from here and while the timing may not be exactly right, I feel comfortable with my overall outlook going forward for the economy, currencies, stocks, interest rates and commodities.
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