RTTNews - Monday, Ernst & Young's ITEM Club said it expects the U.K. economy to shrink 4.4% in 2009, the largest fall in a single year since 1945. The estimate for 2009 was worse than the 3.5% decline predicted in April. The think tank sees a recovery in 2010 with a 0.5% growth.

Peter Spencer, chief economic adviser to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club said,But it remains unclear how quick and complete recovery will be and there is still a serious chance of a relapse.

The main risks remain on the downside and include the threat posed by the H1N1 swine flue virus which could reduce a further 3% from GDP this year and 1.7% in 2010.

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