The institute said that their June estimate that the economy stopped contracting in April was correct, but the pattern emerging now supported its view that the output is now stabilizing, and in the absence of future shocks, the period of sharp recession was over. The institute moreover hoped that May would prove to be the trough of economic activity. In the three months to June, the GDP was around 5.75% below its peak in March last year.
Meanwhile, NIESR pointed out, As the experience of the second quarter estimate of GDP showed, the relationship between short-term indicators of economic activity and movements in GDP is by no means precise.
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