US Agriculture after the Closing Bell Report
Mar Wheat finished up 0.1375 at 633.50, .045 off the high and + .195 from the low. Mar Wheat closed sharply higher on the session as rumors that Russia would impose a tax on exports to ensure wheat supply at home helped to spark some buying and short-covering. a turn up in Corn and talk that US Wheat is now competitive on the World market helped spark some speculative buying early. The move back over Monday's highs sparked aggressive Short-covering and activated stops to drive the market sharply higher into the mid-session. The rally pushed the market to the highest level since January 12th. Talk of a record net Short position from speculators added to the positive tone.
Mar Corn finished + 0.1025 at 630.25, 0.0575 off the high and + 0.1575 from the low. Mar Corn closed sharply higher on the session and has now rallied as much as 0.435 from last week's lows. Rumors that Russia would tax exports supported Wheat and rumors that Argentina may ban exports supported the Corn rally but neither rumor was confirmed. Near panic buying in the cash Corn market in the Midwest and at the Gulf for export helped to support futures as the cash premiums have not been seen in many years. Bearish weather news from Argentina and a negative tone for outside market forces helped to pressure the market early. Speculative buying emerged to provide support with talk that the cash market is strong enough to keep buyers active on minor set-backs.
Mar Soybean finished + 0.025 at 1220, 0.095 off the high and + 0.1625 from the low. Mar Soymeal closed up 0.025 at 323.5. This was +0.053 from the low and 0.038 off the high. March Soy Oil finished down 0.07 at 51.35, 0.24 off the high and 0.35 up from the low. Mar Soybean closed slightly higher on the session as the market shook off early sharp selling pressures to turn higher with the help of strength in Corn and Wheat. A negative tone to outside markets plus news that parts of Argentina received heavy rains in the last 24 hrs helped to drive the market lower early in the session. Traders indicated that drier parts of Santa Fe and Cordoba Argentina received 1.5 to 2.5 ins of rain in the last day and that this rain may go a long way in helping to boost crop conditions. In addition, the 6-10 day forecast was seen as wetter and this added to the negative tone overnight. Open interest was down 3,971 contracts on the strong rally Monday.
Apr Cattle closed at the highest level since November 3rd. The strong rise in Beef prices late Monday and thoughts that the Beef supply will tighten into the Spring helped to support solid new buying from speculators early in the session. Traders will be watching marketings closely to see if any Cattle back-up on feedlots. Boxed-Beef cut-out values came in at 184.32 Tuesday morning, up 0.80 from Monday and up from 182.90 last week at this time.
Apr Hogs traded sharply higher on the opening and closed sharply lower on the day. The Hook Reversal is seen as a negative technical development. The market traded moderately higher on the session early today and up to the highest level since December 28th. Traders are concerned with the short-term overbought condition of the market after April Hogs jumped 355 pts in 8 trading sessions. Cash markets traded steady to 0.50 higher Tuesday but some weakness in Pork prices late yesterday helped to spark a profit-taking trend from Bulls early today. Iowa/Minnesota weighted average direct trade came in at 81.87 which was down 3.43 from Monday.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels. www.livetradingnews.com